190
FXUS62 KMLB 181121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few showers pushing onshore this morning, with VCSH for the
coast. Coverage of showers is forecast to increase this afternoon
and into tonight, with -SHRA included at all TAF sites by this
evening. Some MVFR reductions will be possible, especially from
MLB southward, from around 19-21Z. Although, this may need to be
adjusted, as CAMs don`t always handle onshore-moving showers well.
TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence is too low
to include a mention in the TAF. Outside of any showers, breezy to
windy conditions are forecast, with sustained winds up to 15-20kts
this afternoon and gusts 25-30kts. Winds will decrease slightly
after sunset, but remain elevated, especially along the coast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...Breezy/Gusty Onshore Winds through mid week...
...Increasing rain/storm chances mid to late week...
...Poor to Hazardous Sea conditions through late week...

Today-Tonight...Upper level high pressure centered over the
Carolinas will shift slightly northward through the tonight. Surface
high pressure off the New England coast will remain in place with
its axis over the Florida peninsula retreating slightly through the
day. Breezy onshore flow will continue with wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph possible. Increasing moisture will allow for increased rain and
storm chances this afternoon and evening compared to yesterday.
Forecast PW values will increase from 1.0-1.3" this morning to 1.5-
1.9" in the afternoon. This will support scattered showers and
isolated lightning storms. Highest rain chances (PoP 30-50 percent)
will be from the I-4 corridor southward, with PoP 20 percent
occurring N/NW of the I-4 corridor. Forecast QPF remains generally
0.10-0.20" or less this afternoon and evening. Afternoon high
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the immediate
coast, and upper 80s across the interior with near 90 degrees N/NW
of the I-4 corridor. Overnight lows will once again be in the low to
upper 70s. Due to the breezy onshore flow and increasing seas, a
High risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf will exist at
all area beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised.

Wednesday-Friday... The ridge axis will remain over Florida through
early weekend as the center shifts slightly westward from the NE US
late week. Surface high pressure extending over the Florida
peninsula on Wednesday will retreat northward into late week. Models
continue to be in some disagreement with timing and placement of a
surface trough that is forecast to form in the western Atlantic and
generally move W/WNW towards the eastern US into late week. However
most models do agree that an increase in moisture across Florida
will occur. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast
into mid to late week, with PoP 40-60 percent on Wednesday, and 50-
60 percent on Thursday and Friday. However, exact timing and
placement of the highest QPF remains considerably uncertain. Heavy
rainfall will be possible late week if the aforementioned surface
trough reaches Florida by Thursday as it approaches the eastern US.
Breezy onshore flow will persist through mid week, with wind speeds
generally 10-15 mph (and breezy along the coast)late week. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday... Upper level high pressure centered across the
Deep South on Saturday will slowly shift westward through the time,
with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Surface high
pressure in the western Atlantic will build southwestward over the
Florida peninsula through the period. Locally, winds will generally
be around 10 mph, with E/SE winds forecast on Saturday before
becoming S/SE on Sunday and Monday. The east coast sea breeze is
expected to form each afternoon and push inland. Rain chances will
remain elevated through early week, with rain chances increasing
slightly in coverage early week. Highest rain chances are forecast
across the western interior and across the south on Saturday,
generally across the south on Sunday, and areawide on Monday.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
immediate coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior each day.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today-Tonight... Poor to hazardous boating conditions today. Expect
breezy to windy onshore flow today and tonight, with wind speeds
generally 15-20 KT across all the waters this morning, increasing to
20-25 KT this afternoon across all the waters by this afternoon and
evening. Small craft should exercise caution in all the waters this
morning. Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting across the
offshore waters late morning and expanding to all the waters this
afternoon. Seas will be 4-6ft this morning, increasing to 6-8ft in
the afternoon, before decreasing slightly overnight to 5-7ft.
Isolated to scattered showers this morning with scattered showers
and lightning storms possible this afternoon and into the evening.

Wednesday-Saturday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected
to continue through late week as a trough approaches the Florida
peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will
persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT in the
nearshore waters, and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters through
Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week and into
the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to 7-10 ft on
Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing
to 4-6ft, and 3-4ft on Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for all the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, and wil likely be
extended in time through at least Thursday. Scattered to numerous
showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  87  75 /  30  30  50  50
MCO  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  30
MLB  87  77  87  77 /  50  50  60  60
VRB  87  76  88  76 /  50  50  60  60
LEE  91  77  91  75 /  20  20  40  20
SFB  88  75  89  75 /  30  40  50  40
ORL  89  76  89  76 /  30  40  50  30
FPR  87  76  87  75 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy