Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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165 FXUS62 KMLB 201121 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 721 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Onshore winds become breezy today with wind gusts between 20-25 kts at all terminals. Lingering VCSH is forecast to diminish by 14Z with mostly dry conditions into the afternoon. A mention of precip returns this evening into tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds veer overnight as the low pressure feature moves inland across northeast Florida. VFR conditions are currently forecast but will monitor the potential for MVFR CIGs and VIS across the north tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 - 92L is forecast to approach the northeast Florida peninsula today into tonight. NHC continues to give the feature a low (30%) chance of tropical formation. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions persist today, with breezy onshore winds, a High Risk of rip currents, and large breaking waves. - Increasing coverage of showers and storms forecast this weekend into next week. Today-Tonight...An area of low pressure (also known as Invest 92L) remains northeast of the Bahamas prior to sunrise this morning. The low is forecast to track northeastward today, before moving inland somewhere in the vicinity of the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Friday morning. Global models are in generally good agreement on timing and the location of the low, though the GFS puts the feature a bit farther south along the coast, possibly near the Volusia County area. The NHC continues to give the Invest a 30% chance of tropical formation. Regardless of any tropical development, higher PWATs (>1.5") will continue to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms early this morning, as they are pushed onshore along breezy easterly flow. However, drier air being wrapped around the northern side of 92L will work to decrease chances into at least the early afternoon hours, with PoPs falling to around 20% or less. Then, PoPs once again increase into this evening, as the low approaches the coast and PWATs greatly increase to 2+". PoPs becoming 30-60%, with the highest chances over Volusia and northern Brevard Counties, which are forecast to be closest to the low as it moves inland. Any shift southward or northward with the track of the low would either increase or decrease chances, respectively, so will need to monitor through the day. The best timing for activity will be this evening into tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible. Outside of convection, breezy to gusty winds are once again expected. Easterly flow this morning will become northeasterly as the low approaches. Winds 15-20mph this afternoon, with gusts 20-25mph. Will need to monitor the progress of the low for any indications of locally higher winds along the Volusia Coast overnight tonight. High temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 80s, with temperatures around 90 possible well inland. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. Beach conditions remain hazardous, with a High Risk of life- threatening rip currents and a High Surf Advisory in effect due to breaking waves up to 5-7ft. Beachgoers should not enter the water. Friday...Models forecast 92L to be moving inland along the northeast Florida coast around sunrise Friday morning. The low is then forecast to continue to track northeastward towards the Big Bend, where it will linger into Friday night before washing out. Similarly to what is expected late this morning, drier air is once again forecast to be present on the south side of the low, as it is wrapped around the center. PWATs are forecast to be 1.5" or less through much of the day on Friday, with subsidence in the mid-levels limiting convection. Thus, have included very little in the way of PoPs Friday morning into the early afternoon, with the exception of 20-30% for far northern portions of the forecast area early, with the low moving onshore. PoPs are forecast to increase to around 20-40% in the afternoon hours, though this might be overdone for most spots. The highest chances look to be south of Melbourne, as southeasterly winds begin to once again advect in deeper moisture by the afternoon. It will be a race to see if convection can take advantage of the deeper moisture before losing daytime heating. Lighter winds are forecast Friday, as winds veer southeasterly behind the low. Wind speeds are forecast around 10-15mph during the afternoon. Lower cloud cover will allow for temperatures to climb in to the lower to mid-90s during the afternoon. Then, increasing moisture will keep overnight lows very muggy, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...Surface ridging is forecast to build into the western Atlantic this weekend. This feature will linger into mid- week next week, with the ridge axis extended eastward over the Florida peninsula. Winds will become increasingly southeasterly to southerly this weekend, bringing deep moisture northward from the Caribbean. Combined with a more centralized sea breeze collision in the afternoon over the peninsula, higher chances of showers and storms are expected. PoPs this weekend around 40-60%, with the highest chances over the interior. Then, a trough will drop through the eastern US early next week, as deep moisture with PWATs >2" lingers over the area. Support aloft and winds veering southwesterly will work to further increase PoPs through mid-week, with a sea breeze collision over the eastern half of the peninsula. Have capped PoPs at around 60% for now, given inherent uncertainty in this time frame. However, will likely see chances increase as we go forward in time. High temperatures building into the lower to mid-90s area-wide through the period. Muggy conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 by this weekend. Overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Today-Friday...Breezy and gusty winds linger today into tonight, as Invest 92L, current northeast of the Bahamas, moves towards the local waters. Winds 15-20kts this afternoon veering northeastward, then decreasing into tonight to around 10-15kts. By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be southeasterly. Seas 6-9ft linger into tonight, before subsiding through the day on Friday. Seas forecast around 4-6ft by Friday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight and continue for the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet through mid-morning Friday. Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded lightning storms, are forecast through tonight, though chances decrease Friday. Saturday-Monday...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 3-4ft becoming 2-3ft through the period. However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore-moving convection in the afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 75 90 77 / 60 60 40 20 MCO 88 75 93 77 / 30 30 30 20 MLB 87 75 90 78 / 30 30 30 20 VRB 87 74 91 77 / 40 20 30 30 LEE 90 76 94 78 / 30 20 40 20 SFB 88 74 93 77 / 40 40 30 20 ORL 88 75 93 78 / 30 30 30 20 FPR 87 73 90 77 / 40 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Law