639
FXUS62 KMLB 170610
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Fog development is forecast along portions of the Space and
Treasure Coasts before sunrise. MVFR VIS TEMPOs are included where
fog may develop from TIX to FPR. Light west-southwest winds
develop after sunrise, backing into the afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland. A diminishing line of convection is
forecast to approach northern terminals by late morning, and have
included VCSH at LEE/DAB after 15Z. Otherwise, there is low
confidence for isolated showers and lightning storms across east
central Florida today.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Current-Overnight...The ECSB continues to slowly trudge inland this
evening. Quite a discrepancy in PWATs behind the weak frontal
boundary across the south-central peninsula, with values between
0.75-1.00 inches across the I-4 corridor up to 1.85 inches over
Martin County. Even with intense surface heating earlier this is the
difference between small Cumulus fields northward and ISOLD-WDLY SCT
showers/ISOLD storms well south. Will watch for convection southward
thru around mid-evening, then generally dry for land areas
overnight. Some models suggesting patchy fog formation late
overnight into early Fri morning across the Space/Treasure coasts
and over to Okeechobee County. Confidence is low on exactly where,
but we do have mention in the grids/zones for these areas. Overnight
lows continue warm and mild and well into the 60s and L70s.

Fri...Previous...Some hi-res guidance shows a small MCS tracking
E/SE across the NE Gulf early in the day, weakening as it reaches
our northern sections during the late morning. Meanwhile, the
frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward along with its
assocd band of moisture. So have drawn a small 20 PoP across the
area for isolated showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. Max
temps will be hot with widespread mid 90s, even lower 90s at the
coast due to a delayed sea breeze onset. With the increasing
dewpoints/humidity, it will feel more oppressive with peak heat
indices 100-105.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight/Fri...As previously mentioned, weak frontal
boundary draped over the southern waters tonight will begin to lift
northward during the day on Fri as light southerly to variable winds
with a weak pressure gradient gradually giving way to a SERLY flow 7-
12 kts in the afternoon. Any convection over the Treasure Coast this
evening will gradually diminish. ISOLD showers/storms in the
forecast on Fri. Seas 1-2 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  93  72 /  20  10  40  40
MCO  94  74  96  75 /  20  10  40  30
MLB  90  74  93  74 /  20  10  40  30
VRB  92  73  95  73 /  20  10  40  20
LEE  92  75  92  75 /  30   0  40  40
SFB  93  74  95  74 /  20  10  40  30
ORL  93  75  95  75 /  20  10  40  30
FPR  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law