165
FXUS62 KMLB 201121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Onshore winds become breezy today with wind gusts between 20-25
kts at all terminals. Lingering VCSH is forecast to diminish by
14Z with mostly dry conditions into the afternoon. A mention of
precip returns this evening into tonight as an area of low
pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds veer overnight as the
low pressure feature moves inland across northeast Florida. VFR
conditions are currently forecast but will monitor the potential
for MVFR CIGs and VIS across the north tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

- 92L is forecast to approach the northeast Florida peninsula
  today into tonight. NHC continues to give the feature a low
  (30%) chance of tropical formation.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions persist today, with breezy
  onshore winds, a High Risk of rip currents, and large breaking
  waves.

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms forecast this weekend
  into next week.

Today-Tonight...An area of low pressure (also known as Invest 92L)
remains northeast of the Bahamas prior to sunrise this morning.
The low is forecast to track northeastward today, before moving
inland somewhere in the vicinity of the northeast Florida coast
late tonight into early Friday morning. Global models are in
generally good agreement on timing and the location of the low,
though the GFS puts the feature a bit farther south along the
coast, possibly near the Volusia County area. The NHC continues
to give the Invest a 30% chance of tropical formation.

Regardless of any tropical development, higher PWATs (>1.5") will
continue to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
early this morning, as they are pushed onshore along breezy
easterly flow. However, drier air being wrapped around the
northern side of 92L will work to decrease chances into at least the
early afternoon hours, with PoPs falling to around 20% or less.
Then, PoPs once again increase into this evening, as the low
approaches the coast and PWATs greatly increase to 2+". PoPs
becoming 30-60%, with the highest chances over Volusia and
northern Brevard Counties, which are forecast to be closest to the
low as it moves inland. Any shift southward or northward with the
track of the low would either increase or decrease chances,
respectively, so will need to monitor through the day. The best
timing for activity will be this evening into tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible.

Outside of convection, breezy to gusty winds are once again
expected. Easterly flow this morning will become northeasterly as
the low approaches. Winds 15-20mph this afternoon, with gusts
20-25mph. Will need to monitor the progress of the low for any
indications of locally higher winds along the Volusia Coast
overnight tonight. High temperatures are forecast in the mid to
upper 80s, with temperatures around 90 possible well inland.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. Beach conditions remain
hazardous, with a High Risk of life- threatening rip currents and
a High Surf Advisory in effect due to breaking waves up to 5-7ft.
Beachgoers should not enter the water.

Friday...Models forecast 92L to be moving inland along the
northeast Florida coast around sunrise Friday morning. The low is
then forecast to continue to track northeastward towards the Big
Bend, where it will linger into Friday night before washing out.
Similarly to what is expected late this morning, drier air is once
again forecast to be present on the south side of the low, as it
is wrapped around the center. PWATs are forecast to be 1.5" or
less through much of the day on Friday, with subsidence in the
mid-levels limiting convection. Thus, have included very little in
the way of PoPs Friday morning into the early afternoon, with the
exception of 20-30% for far northern portions of the forecast area
early, with the low moving onshore. PoPs are forecast to increase
to around 20-40% in the afternoon hours, though this might be
overdone for most spots. The highest chances look to be south of
Melbourne, as southeasterly winds begin to once again advect in
deeper moisture by the afternoon. It will be a race to see if
convection can take advantage of the deeper moisture before losing
daytime heating.

Lighter winds are forecast Friday, as winds veer southeasterly
behind the low. Wind speeds are forecast around 10-15mph during
the afternoon. Lower cloud cover will allow for temperatures to
climb in to the lower to mid-90s during the afternoon. Then,
increasing moisture will keep overnight lows very muggy, only
dropping into the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday-Wednesday...Surface ridging is forecast to build into the
western Atlantic this weekend. This feature will linger into mid-
week next week, with the ridge axis extended eastward over the
Florida peninsula. Winds will become increasingly southeasterly to
southerly this weekend, bringing deep moisture northward from the
Caribbean. Combined with a more centralized sea breeze collision
in the afternoon over the peninsula, higher chances of showers and
storms are expected. PoPs this weekend around 40-60%, with the
highest chances over the interior.

Then, a trough will drop through the eastern US early next week,
as deep moisture with PWATs >2" lingers over the area. Support
aloft and winds veering southwesterly will work to further increase
PoPs through mid-week, with a sea breeze collision over the
eastern half of the peninsula. Have capped PoPs at around 60% for
now, given inherent uncertainty in this time frame. However, will
likely see chances increase as we go forward in time. High
temperatures building into the lower to mid-90s area-wide through
the period. Muggy conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 by
this weekend. Overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Today-Friday...Breezy and gusty winds linger today into tonight,
as Invest 92L, current northeast of the Bahamas, moves towards the
local waters. Winds 15-20kts this afternoon veering northeastward,
then decreasing into tonight to around 10-15kts. By Friday
morning, winds are forecast to be southeasterly. Seas 6-9ft linger
into tonight, before subsiding through the day on Friday. Seas
forecast around 4-6ft by Friday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through tonight and continue for the offshore
waters north of Sebastian Inlet through mid-morning Friday.
Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded lightning storms, are
forecast through tonight, though chances decrease Friday.

Saturday-Monday...Improving boating conditions this weekend into
early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining
under 15kts. Seas 3-4ft becoming 2-3ft through the period.
However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances
for offshore-moving convection in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  90  77 /  60  60  40  20
MCO  88  75  93  77 /  30  30  30  20
MLB  87  75  90  78 /  30  30  30  20
VRB  87  74  91  77 /  40  20  30  30
LEE  90  76  94  78 /  30  20  40  20
SFB  88  74  93  77 /  40  40  30  20
ORL  88  75  93  78 /  30  30  30  20
FPR  87  73  90  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law