289
FXUS62 KMLB 140533
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
133 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Seeing ISOLD/WDLY SCT light shower activity across the Treasure
Coast early this A.M. Additional concerns revolve around stratus
potential, especially northward. Do have some TEMPO groups (aft
08Z) in place to cover this but will watch closely. Models hint at
drier air northward (Volusia Cty) and will see an inland
progression of the ECSB - quicker north of the Treasure Coast.
Should see lower SHRA/TSRA chances in the KDAB-KTIX corridor.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA for interior areas should develop from 18z-20z
in the KSFB-KMCO corridor and move farther inland through late
afternoon twd the KLEE-KISM corridor.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Evening convection has transitioned west of east central Florida
this evening with the rain across the south also ending by early
evening. A surface pressure trough bisecting Osceola and Brevard
Counties and extending northeast into the Atlantic will be the
dividing line between deeper moisture that will continue across
the southern peninsula and somewhat drier air to the north. Short
range models do not show much redevelopment of convection
overnight, but will continue small chances for a shower or storm
across mainly Okeechobee county and the southern Treasure Coast
later tonight. Anvil cloudiness extends across northern sections
and should tend to decrease by midnight. With some partial clearing
north and some low level northeast flow behind the surface trough
the short range guidance is more bullish on development of low
stratus across the northern interior overnight, but these areas
should remain dry. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s for much
of the area with some upper 70s along the warmer spots on the
barrier islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Update...Little change in the forecast for the overnight with the
low pressure trough remaining across the waters. Buoy 41069 off
the Volusia County coast has winds from the NNE to 10 knots with
winds across the Treasure Coast waters from the SW to 15 knots.
Some nocturnal redevelopment of showers and storms is expected
across the Atlantic with higher coverage for the Treasure Coast
waters. Seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft offshore.

Tonight...Invest 90L off the northeast FL coast will shift slowly
northeast, with a weak trough axis across the northern waters.
This will lead to varying winds out of the N/NW across the Volusia
waters, around 5-10 knots, and out of the W/SW farther south up to
10-15 knots. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible, especially across the
Treasure Coast waters into tonight.

Friday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak front will
shift into and remain in place across north central Florida
through Friday and gradually fade into the weekend. Invest 90L is
forecast to continue to move northeast off the eastern US coast.
Winds will be rather variable around 5-10 knots on Friday,
becoming E-SE on Saturday afternoon. Winds will become easterly
and increase to 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure exits
offshore of the eastern U.S. coast, and will remain onshore and
increase into early next week with speeds up to 15-20 knots. Seas
2-3ft will increase up to 4 ft in the offshore waters on Monday.
Scattered showers and scattered lightning storms will generally
persist each day, especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  10
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  89  74  89  75 /  60  30  60  30
VRB  89  74  89  74 /  70  50  60  30
LEE  94  76  94  76 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  92  74  93  74 /  50  20  50  10
ORL  92  76  92  75 /  60  20  60  10
FPR  89  73  89  73 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Sedlock