205
FXUS62 KMLB 201903
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
303 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

- An area of low pressure (AL92) will approach the southeast U.S.
  coast late tonight into Friday. NHC is monitoring the
  disturbance for tropical development.

- Poor to hazardous marine and beach conditions will remain into
  Friday

- Showers and storms increase in coverage this weekend into next week

Now-Tonight...Breezy east-northeast winds this afternoon are
accompanied by gusts around 20-25 mph at times. Partly cloudy
conditions are letting through a good amount of sunshine, allowing
temperatures to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. However, a gradual
increase in cloud cover is expected as we head into the evening.
This is in association with a disturbance over the Atlantic, which
is forecast to approach the northeast Florida and Georgia coast
Friday morning. Satellite imagery shows a rather disorganized
system with a couple areas of cooler cloud tops and associated
rain showers. Drier air is working into the southern side of this
area of low pressure and will continue to do so as moves
northwestward tonight. Regardless of further development of AL92,
PoPs will gradually increase from east to west into this evening,
especially from Cape Canaveral northward along the Volusia County
coast. Pockets of moderate to heavy downpours are expected and
will continue intermittently through daybreak Friday. Embedded
lightning storms are possible, primarily those that develop
offshore and push toward the immediate coast. Winds are forecast
to slowly decrease overnight but may remain breezy along the
Volusia coast.

In addition to rain and gradually decreasing winds, beach
conditions will remain hazardous. A High Surf Advisory and high
risk of rip currents remain in effect through late tonight, with
the high risk for rip currents likely to be extended through at
least tomorrow. Minor beach erosion is possible through tonight
before winds begin to subside late.

Friday...Shower activity associated with AL92 will linger through
the morning hours, mainly over the northern half of the forecast
area. Surface flow turns southerly and eventually backs to the
southeast tomorrow afternoon as the east coast sea breeze tries to
get going. Sufficient moisture will be in place to spark
additional showers and isolated storms Friday afternoon. Coverage
may be impacted by how much cloud debris holds over from morning
rain, but a good deal of sunshine should break out over the
southern two-thirds of the area. This results in highs warming
into the 90s most everywhere, with the upper 80s holding on at the
coast from the Cape northward. Isolated showers may stick around
Friday night but most of the activity will wane in intensity after
sunset. Low temperatures will fall into the mid 70s (upper 70s at
the coast).

Saturday-Wednesday...Saturday marks the beginning of increasing
rain chances this weekend and into next week. Upper level ridging
stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly
influencing the overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across
the southeast and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as
a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region. Surface
flow will remain southerly, backing southeast during the
afternoon as the sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly
SSW through midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of
this period, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous showers
and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and storm-
scale boundary collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go from
50-55 percent Saturday up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend
and next week. The NBM remains a bit aggressive so forecast values
still remain under that and some of the other medium range
guidance. Regardless, this stretch of days could provide some
additional, much needed rain for parts of the area. Temperatures
through the extended stay warm, generally in the low 90s, with
heat indices approaching 100-107. Nighttime temperatures will stay
in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions remain with a Small Craft
Advisory in effect. Breezy to gusty northeast winds persist as an
approaching low pressure system brings rain and isolated lightning
storms through Friday morning. Seas build up to 9 feet offshore,
mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Closer to the coast seas 5-7 ft
are expected. Winds begin to subside from midnight onward as the
Atlantic disturbance (AL92) begins to lift northwestward.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...By Friday morning, winds are
forecast to be southeasterly. Seas subside through the day,
becoming 4-6 ft by the afternoon. Scattered showers with a few
embedded lightning storms are forecast through at least Friday
morning, especially near and north of Cape Canaveral.

Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week,
with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining under 15 kts.
Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. However, greater
daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially
early next week, with increasing chances for offshore-moving
convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR through the period with generally dry conditions expected
through this afternoon. A few light showers cannot be ruled out
near the terminals. Winds will continue to remain gusty at all
terminals, generally out of the east. Increasing rain chances
overnight as an area of low pressure nears the Florida peninsula,
with VCSH/SHRA after 00-02Z at all terminals except for LEE.
Guidance indicates activity clearing from the Treasure Coast after
09Z, from MLB after 10Z, and TIX after 12Z. Continued shower
development is forecast through much of the day at the remaining
terminals, so chose to keep VCSH in. Winds will be veering
throughout the night due to the low, and may become variable at
times. ENE to ESE flow is forecast to set up at all terminals
after 15Z, with low level clouds persisting into tomorrow. Would
not be surprised if MVFR CIGs are reached tonight into tomorrow,
but confidence was not high enough to commit to MVFR CIGs quite
yet. Will continue to monitor and amend as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  77  90 /  60  50  30  50
MCO  75  91  77  92 /  30  40  20  60
MLB  75  89  78  90 /  40  30  20  50
VRB  74  90  77  90 /  30  30  30  50
LEE  76  91  78  94 /  30  50  20  60
SFB  75  91  77  93 /  50  50  20  60
ORL  75  91  77  93 /  40  40  20  60
FPR  73  90  76  90 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen