460
FXUS62 KMLB 201735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR through the period with generally dry conditions expected
through this afternoon. A few light showers cannot be ruled out
near the terminals. Winds will continue to remain gusty at all
terminals, generally out of the east. Increasing rain chances
overnight as an area of low pressure nears the Florida peninsula,
with VCSH/SHRA after 00-02Z at all terminals except for LEE.
Guidance indicates activity clearing from the Treasure Coast after
09Z, from MLB after 10Z, and TIX after 12Z. Continued shower
development is forecast through much of the day at the remaining
terminals, so chose to keep VCSH in. Winds will be veering
throughout the night due to the low, and may become variable at
times. ENE to ESE flow is forecast to set up at all terminals
after 15Z, with low level clouds persisting into tomorrow. Would
not be surprised if MVFR CIGs are reached tonight into tomorrow,
but confidence was not high enough to commit to MVFR CIGs quite
yet. Will continue to monitor and amend as necessary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A few sprinkles or passing isolated showers remain possible
through the morning, though activity continuing into the afternoon
remains uncertain. Most locations look to remain dry until a more
notable push of moisture arrives this evening and tonight across
the area, in association with a tropical disturbance northeast of
the Bahamas. The NHC nudged the probability of development for
this disturbance to 40% earlier this morning, though if anything
becomes of it, the local impacts remain very similar to previous
forecasts. Breezy to gusty conditions will persist through this
evening, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. A general
decrease in wind speeds is expected after midnight. PoPs were
updated to reflect the latest hi-res guidance and may still be a
bit generous. A slight chance to chance of showers arrives around
sunset and later from the east, with the highest chance of
rainfall along the Volusia and northern Brevard County coast.

Temperatures remain on track to reach the 80s/low 90s (inland)
this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory and high risk of rip currents
remain at area beaches, so beachgoers are encouraged to stay out
of the water.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Today-Friday (modified previous)...Breezy and gusty winds linger
today into tonight, as Invest 92L, current northeast of the
Bahamas, moves towards the local waters. Winds 15-20kts this
afternoon veering northeastward, then decreasing after midnight to
around 10-15kts. By Friday morning, winds are forecast to be
southeasterly. Seas 6-9ft linger into tonight, before subsiding
through the day on Friday. Seas forecast around 4-6ft by Friday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight
and continue for the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet
through mid-morning Friday. Scattered to numerous showers with a
few embedded lightning storms are forecast through tonight and
into at least Friday morning, especially near and north of Cape
Canaveral.

Saturday-Monday...Improving boating conditions this weekend into
early next week, with southeasterly to southerly winds remaining
under 15kts. Seas 3-4ft becoming 2-3ft through the period.
However, greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances
for offshore-moving convection in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  77  90 /  60  50  30  50
MCO  75  91  77  92 /  30  40  20  60
MLB  75  89  78  90 /  40  30  20  50
VRB  74  90  77  90 /  30  30  30  50
LEE  76  91  78  94 /  30  50  20  60
SFB  75  91  77  93 /  50  50  20  60
ORL  75  91  77  93 /  40  40  20  60
FPR  73  90  76  90 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen