168
FXUS62 KMLB 191435
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A batch of showers and embedded lightning storms continues to trek
west into portions of Osceola and Orange counties this morning,
after producing 1-2" of rain in portions of St. Lucie, Indian
River, and Brevard counties (according to 3-hour MRMS estimates).
Elsewhere, showers are isolated in nature and will likely remain
that way through the day, after the main swath of rain pushes
west of our area in the next couple of hours. A couple of
embedded storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon as
additional activity over the Atlantic pushes toward the coast.
PoPs and thunder chances have been adjusted to reflect the latest
radar/satellite trends.

Also, temperatures have stayed a few degrees cooler due to rain
and associated cloud cover. The forecast was updated to account
for this change, lowering highs by a degree or so everywhere.
Sunshine may take some time to emerge early in the afternoon, so
trends will continue to be monitored for additional (downward) adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Onshore moving showers this morning. MVFR/IFR CIGs with passing
SHRA and occasional TSRA. Have added MVFR CIGs until 14Z from MLB
northward and across interior sites. Maintained VCTS across all
sites today. Windy onshore flow with 15-20 KT and gusts 25-30 KT.
Additional TSRA will be possible this afternoon but confidence
and coverage is too uncertain to add VCTS in TAFs at this time.
Winds decrease slightly overnight 10-12 KT across interior, with
10-15 KT and gusts 20-25 KT across the coastal sites. Kept VCSH
across coastal sites tonight, but took VCSH out briefly overnight
across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Hazardous boating conditions
will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and gusts to around
30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local
Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft tonight and
could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday. Scattered
showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight, with a few
lightning storms possible.

Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist
through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching
10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though
will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have
been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions
to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds
and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will
become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are
forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and lightning storm chances
will continue, however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  87  76 /  50  60  50  50
MCO  87  76  88  75 /  60  40  50  20
MLB  87  77  87  76 /  50  60  60  30
VRB  87  76  87  76 /  60  50  60  30
LEE  89  76  91  76 /  50  30  40  20
SFB  87  75  88  75 /  40  40  50  30
ORL  87  76  88  76 /  60  40  50  30
FPR  87  76  87  75 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson