149
FXUS62 KMLB 171957
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...Brief downpours are quickly moving from east to west
across the forecast area this afternoon, with a couple of
locations picking up 0.25" or more in one hour. Activity is very
isolated in nature so not everyone will end up seeing rain, or
measurable rain at that. High clouds continue to migrate over the
peninsula with low level clouds pushing onshore from the Atlantic.
The midday XMR sounding noted moistening of the lowest 1 km,
which is supporting the shallow, isolated showers. Temperatures
ranging from the 80s and low 90s this afternoon will gradually
fall into the 70s tonight, as a very low chance for onshore-
moving showers continues.

Easterly winds are also gusty and will remain elevated along the
coast overnight, slowing to around 10 mph or less inland.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Onshore flow persists through midweek as upper
level high pressure begins to shift north and gradually expands
westward over the TN Valley. Breezy conditions are expected
through the day with gusts pushing 30 mph at the coast during the
afternoon and evening. Model guidance depicts waves of greater
atmospheric moisture traversing the state, acting to elevate rain
chances. The primary focus for repeated rounds of showers and
isolated lightning storms will be nearer to the coast each day.
Lower rain chances (20-40 percent) remain along and north of I-4.
Generally, QPF through Thursday morning remains anywhere from a
few hundredths (inland) to 0.75" of rainfall along the coast.
Isolated amounts to 1.5"-2.0" cannot be ruled out where rounds of
heavy downpours move over the same location. Afternoon highs
remain seasonable in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees (warmer
inland). Overnight lows range from the low 70s inland to the mid
and upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Surface high pressure
extending over the Florida peninsula will retreat northward by
late week. Most models are in agreement that an increase in
moisture across Florida will occur through late week as a surface
trough is forecast to move WNW toward the southeast U.S. coast by
Friday. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast
Thursday with 60 percent PoP areawide. However, exact timing and
placement of the highest QPF remains uncertain. Episodes of
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible late week if attendant
moisture from the surface trough reaches Florida. Breezy onshore
flow will persist with wind speeds generally around 15 mph (up to
20 mph along the coast) late week with decreasing wind speeds
into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low
90s through late week, with mid 90s possible into the weekend,
mainly across the northern interior. Overnight lows will generally
be in the low to mid 70s. Surf conditions will also deteriorate
through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells.
This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at
area beaches, along with rough surf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as
persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind
speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft
should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition,
isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over
the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating
conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the
Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small
Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning
and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through
midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT
through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the
offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around
10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft
on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside
on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm
chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will
decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and
lightning storms remaining possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly VFR with gusty easterly winds and brief SHRA impacts. Added
VCSH to all terminals through 00Z for ISO SHRA that could cause
MVFR-IFR VIS impacts too short for TEMPOs (less than 30 minutes).
Confidence in onshore moving SHRA after 00Z too low for even VCSH,
but can`t rule out a brief overnight impact at the coastal
terminals. Winds Erly 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this
afternoon settle to 10-15 kts overnight, then return to
15-20G25-30 kts Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  50
MCO  74  88  75  88 /  10  30  20  40
MLB  77  87  77  87 /  20  50  40  50
VRB  76  87  76  87 /  20  50  40  50
LEE  75  90  76  91 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  74  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  40
ORL  75  89  76  89 /  10  30  20  40
FPR  75  87  76  87 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley