Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
289 FXUS62 KMLB 140533 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 133 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Seeing ISOLD/WDLY SCT light shower activity across the Treasure Coast early this A.M. Additional concerns revolve around stratus potential, especially northward. Do have some TEMPO groups (aft 08Z) in place to cover this but will watch closely. Models hint at drier air northward (Volusia Cty) and will see an inland progression of the ECSB - quicker north of the Treasure Coast. Should see lower SHRA/TSRA chances in the KDAB-KTIX corridor. Scattered SHRA/TSRA for interior areas should develop from 18z-20z in the KSFB-KMCO corridor and move farther inland through late afternoon twd the KLEE-KISM corridor. && .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Evening convection has transitioned west of east central Florida this evening with the rain across the south also ending by early evening. A surface pressure trough bisecting Osceola and Brevard Counties and extending northeast into the Atlantic will be the dividing line between deeper moisture that will continue across the southern peninsula and somewhat drier air to the north. Short range models do not show much redevelopment of convection overnight, but will continue small chances for a shower or storm across mainly Okeechobee county and the southern Treasure Coast later tonight. Anvil cloudiness extends across northern sections and should tend to decrease by midnight. With some partial clearing north and some low level northeast flow behind the surface trough the short range guidance is more bullish on development of low stratus across the northern interior overnight, but these areas should remain dry. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s for much of the area with some upper 70s along the warmer spots on the barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Update...Little change in the forecast for the overnight with the low pressure trough remaining across the waters. Buoy 41069 off the Volusia County coast has winds from the NNE to 10 knots with winds across the Treasure Coast waters from the SW to 15 knots. Some nocturnal redevelopment of showers and storms is expected across the Atlantic with higher coverage for the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft offshore. Tonight...Invest 90L off the northeast FL coast will shift slowly northeast, with a weak trough axis across the northern waters. This will lead to varying winds out of the N/NW across the Volusia waters, around 5-10 knots, and out of the W/SW farther south up to 10-15 knots. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible, especially across the Treasure Coast waters into tonight. Friday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak front will shift into and remain in place across north central Florida through Friday and gradually fade into the weekend. Invest 90L is forecast to continue to move northeast off the eastern US coast. Winds will be rather variable around 5-10 knots on Friday, becoming E-SE on Saturday afternoon. Winds will become easterly and increase to 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure exits offshore of the eastern U.S. coast, and will remain onshore and increase into early next week with speeds up to 15-20 knots. Seas 2-3ft will increase up to 4 ft in the offshore waters on Monday. Scattered showers and scattered lightning storms will generally persist each day, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 40 10 MCO 92 75 91 75 / 60 30 60 20 MLB 89 74 89 75 / 60 30 60 30 VRB 89 74 89 74 / 70 50 60 30 LEE 94 76 94 76 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 92 74 93 74 / 50 20 50 10 ORL 92 76 92 75 / 60 20 60 10 FPR 89 73 89 73 / 70 50 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Volkmer AVIATION...Sedlock