421
FXUS62 KMLB 061307
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
907 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

-Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to
isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening.

-Hot conditions forecast today and through the weekend, with near
record highs and heat index values in the 100 to 107 range.

-Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend.

Morning central FL soundings at TBW and XMR indicate the potential
for isolated strong to severe storms across east central FL this
afternoon. MUCAPE is near 3500 J/kg, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and steep
mid level lapse rates near 7 degs C/km should support isolated
storms with the potential for one inch hail (5% chance) and
downburst winds (5% chance) up to 60 mph. Short range convective
models indicate the sea breeze should push slowly inland through
early afternoon with initial convection developing near or inland
from the St Johns River basin. By 3-7 pm, isolated storms may
become strong to severe across inland areas including metro
Orlando and Osceola county. By early evening storms will likely
propogate southward toward Okeechobee county and also back toward
the east coast with westerly steering flow aloft. Frequent
lightning will also accompany some of the storms.

Before receiving some rain-cooled air in some areas with late
afternoon storms, high temps should reach the mid to upper 90s
across portions of the interior. The combination of the heat and
humidity will produce peak heat index values in the 102-107 range
(close to heat advisory criteria). Take extra precaution if
participating in outdoor activities today. Take frequent breaks
in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the
signs of heat related illness!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Moved VCTS and TEMPOs earlier a bit at the inland terminals as
latest guidance continues to signal SHRA developing as early as
18Z. Little more uncertainty when TSRA becomes SCT-NUM, but 19Z
looks to be earliest reasonable so went with that for TEMPO
starts. Added TSRA TEMPO to KTIX and held off KMLB-KSUA, but it`s
a close call. Light S-SW flow will favor the WCSB, reaching KLEE
by 19Z and shifting winds to W at 10-15 kts. ECSB develops around
16Z, shifting winds at coastal terminals to ESE-SE near 15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts. Sea breezes collide INVOF the I-4
terminals around 20Z, which combined with TSRA will lead to
frequent wind direction changes in the late afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Update...South winds to 10 knots this morning with seas near 2 ft
at buoys 41009/41010 will support generally good boating conditions
today. There will be a lightning and strong wind gust threat with
storms moving toward the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic
waters generally from 6pm to 9pm this evening.

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
slides southward across the waters with lighter winds around 5-8
knots out of the S/SSW this morning, but eventually becoming SE and
increasing to 10-15 knots into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze forms and shifts inland.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land
areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary
collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain
over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms
may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially
off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong
to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up
to 40-60 mph and small hail.

Winds veer southerly and remain elevated around 10-15 knots into the
evening, with winds continuing to veer to the W/SW overnight. Seas
will range from 2-3 feet.

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease into the weekend before rising once
again into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  72  94  73 /  60  30  50  10
MCO  97  74  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
MLB  93  72  92  74 /  50  40  50  20
VRB  93  72  93  73 /  50  40  50  20
LEE  96  75  94  76 /  50  20  40  10
SFB  97  74  96  75 /  60  20  50  10
ORL  97  75  95  76 /  60  30  50  10
FPR  94  71  94  73 /  50  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Haley