Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
161 FXUS62 KMLB 240615 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Atlc ridge axis has slipped a little further south, located near Lake Okeechobee, resulting in a light S to SW wind flow through 14Z-15Z around 5 knots with mainly VFR conds. A wind shift out of the SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z around 10 knots. The sea breeze should spark isold to sct SHRA/TSRA just inland from the coast so have maintained VC term for coastal terminals aft 15Z. Confidence and coverage not high enough to warrant TEMPO there. Expect an increase in storm coverage over the north interior aft 19Z assocd with boundary collisions so have added a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in TSRA at MCO/SFB/LEE. Chose a 3-hr window for each but confidence is low on the exact timing. Adjustments may be needed in later TAF packages. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Back to a more seasonal diurnal pattern that will likely continue into next week. Weak steering flow with ample moisture, daytime heating, and boundary collisions. Primary convective threats continue to be occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours leading to minor and nuisance flooding locally. Local rainfall totals also between 1-4 inches in some spots. Boundary collisions and deep moisture may keep some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective activity going into mid- late evening, esp areas not worked over by earlier precip or locations able to recover and destabilize, else mostly dry over land overnight with clouds thinning. Light S/SW winds. Overnight mins in the 70s with conditions humid. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Overnight-Monday... South to southeast winds at around 10 to 15kts are forecast diminish into Monday morning at 5 to 10kts before backing southeast into the mid morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into Monday morning over the local Atlantic with offshore moving showers/storms expected in the evening. The main hazards associated with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 35mph. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft over the offshore Volusia county waters tonight. Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 93 76 / 60 30 70 40 MCO 93 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 30 MLB 91 75 91 76 / 50 30 60 40 VRB 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 50 30 LEE 94 77 94 77 / 70 30 70 30 SFB 94 76 94 76 / 70 30 70 40 ORL 93 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30 FPR 90 74 91 74 / 60 20 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Kelly