Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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039 FXUS62 KMLB 230604 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Keeping TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for FPR & SUA a little while longer based on radar trends and will keep MLB/VRB VFR with VCSH. This activity should diminish through 08Z but pop-up SHRA possible even over the interior through sunrise. On Sun, very moist S to SE flow 7-10 knots with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA. Most of the time VFR CIGs are forecast but TEMPO IFR/MVFR conds will occur in and storms. Confidence is not high on when to insert TEMPO groups but added them from 19Z-22Z at MCO/SFB/ISM with VCSH after 00Z. Will prob add a similar TEMPO to LEE and DAB with the 12Z TAF package. Less confident about coastal terminals MLB-SUA and will maintain liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS terms there for now. && .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A return this afternoon/evening to a more normal diurnal summertime wx pattern across ECFL. Deep moisture, daytime heating, and various boundary collisions promoted SCT-NMRS showers and lightning storms. This activity will continue to diminish into mid-late evening and overnight. Cannot rule out ISOLD convection along the coast overnight, especially south from Melbourne. S/SE winds will become L/V to calm this evening and overnight. Clouds will thin overnight as convection diminishes. Overnight lows in the 70s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Overnight...Scattered-numerous showers and lightning storms over the local Atlc waters. Primary convective hazards remain cloud- to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours. S/SE winds will veer a bit more SSW overnight with speeds 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore, locally higher invof storms. Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)...High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 50 40 70 20 MCO 90 75 92 76 / 60 50 70 20 MLB 88 75 91 75 / 60 40 70 30 VRB 89 73 91 74 / 50 40 60 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 FPR 89 73 91 73 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Kelly