Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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777 FXUS62 KMLB 170010 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 810 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 810 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Brief MVFR CIGs possible along the coast with brief --SHRA in steady onshore flow. On Monday, gusty east winds 15-20 knots gusting 25 knots will produce crosswinds at MCO. && .UPDATE... Convection has pushed well west of the FA in increasing east flow. Min temps will hold in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast but settle into the mid 70s interior. Brief passing sprinkle/ light shower possible along the coast. Removed thunder from the forecast for tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Monday-Tuesday...A mid level high is expected to remain centered over the Carolinas Monday with surface high pressure beginning to slip seaward through the day. Breezy onshore flow is forecast to increase during the morning hours, reaching 15 mph (gusts 20 to 25 mph) inland with slightly higher sustained winds at the coast (around 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph). Monday features the lowest rain chances of the week, due in part to an overall lack of moisture and forcing. Adjustments to the precip forecast may be needed if early morning marine showers linger a little later into the morning. Otherwise, a good amount of dry time and sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s (far interior). Similar temperatures are expected Tuesday with an increase in moisture along the coast and over the southern half of the forecast area. This will result in slightly greater shower and isolated storm activity, maximized during the afternoon hours. Despite this, QPF remains generally less than 0.10-0.20". Breezy conditions are once again expected, with gusts reaching up to 30 mph over a larger portion of east central Florida Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday-Saturday...Model solutions quickly diverge from mid to late week, though many are in agreement on an increase in available moisture over the FL Peninsula. Daytime highs will remain similar, in the upper 80s/low 90s, eventually trending upward late week into the weekend. Increasing rain and storm chances are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, though exact timing and placement of the highest QPF remains considerably uncertain. Instances of heavy rainfall are possible if a surface trough, forecast to approach the eastern U.S., reaches Florida by Thursday. Through the extended period, onshore flow of at least 10-15 mph will persist with breezy conditions at the coast. Surf conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough surf. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Tonight...Easterly flow 10-15 kt continue, increasing toward daybreak Monday to 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are possible late tonight over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 2-3 ft, building to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream early Monday morning. Monday-Thursday (modified previous)...Onshore winds winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with the approach of a surface trough over the western Atlc, which does have some potential to organize by midweek as it ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 10 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 12 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least, Cautionary Statements will turn into Small Craft Advisories later this week. Shower and isolated lightning storm chances will go up by midweek across the local waters as moisture increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 88 76 87 / 20 20 20 30 MCO 75 88 75 87 / 10 20 10 30 MLB 77 88 77 88 / 10 20 10 40 VRB 76 88 76 87 / 10 20 20 40 LEE 76 91 75 90 / 10 10 10 20 SFB 75 89 75 89 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 76 89 76 89 / 10 20 10 30 FPR 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Kelly