306
FXUS62 KMLB 221746
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VCSH at all terminals for southwest moving showers. VFR
forecast, although brief VIS/CIG reductions will be possible with
isolated showers. Low confidence in lightning today and have kept
any mention out of the 18Z TAF package. East/ northeast winds
increase to 10-12 kts through the afternoon. Gusts between 15-18
kts are forecast at coastal terminals. Coastal VCSH continues from
MLB southward overnight.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current-Tonight...Scattered "low-topped" showers across the Atlc are
beginning to move onto the coast and points further inland, with
this trend continuing this morning into early afternoon. A diffuse
sea breeze will develop and push inland during the day. H500 temps -
3C to -4C will limit instability and lightning storm potential
today. We carry 20-30pct PoPs over land. Activity will diminish or
push into WCFL for the most part by early in the evening, but we
still retain a small PoP along the Space/Treasure coasts
overnight. Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast will continue
to advance across the GoMex and FL peninsula over the next 24
hours providing subsidence aloft across the region. Weak surface
ridging exists to the north. NE winds today increasing to 10-15
mph with higher gusts likely. Onshore winds become light during
the evening. Highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible well into
the interior. Lows in the L-M70s, perhaps a few U70s along the
immediate coast, with conditions remaining muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Deep South today drifts
eastward into the Atlantic via the Carolina coast through the
period. Northeast winds today veer onshore through Tuesday. Winds
10-15kts each day, especially in the afternoon hours, as the sea
breeze develops. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will
decrease through early this week, though at least a 20% chance
will linger over the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 3-4ft, with up to
5ft possible well offshore north of Cape Canaveral into this
afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther
eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 70%
chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf
of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of
this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any
impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters,
boating conditions look to deteriorate into late week, as
southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning
storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on
the latest forecast for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  89 /   0  10   0  10
MCO  74  92  74  91 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  77  89  77  89 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  75  89  75  89 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  73  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  73  91  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  75  92  75  92 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141-
     154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law