153
FXUS64 KMOB 151134
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with a light and variable wind
becoming light out of the south-southeast this afternoon. BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

One more hot day before the pattern does a 180 and we enter a
soggier period. Upper level high pressure will be directly over
Alabama today as it slowly drift eastward. Meanwhile in the
southern Gulf, an inverted trough will progress westward into the
southwestern Gulf by Sunday. While subsidence will be king today,
moisture will surge northward on Sunday as the upper high slides
into the western Atlantic and the inverted trough settles in the
Bay of Campeche. Deep southerly flow will develop by Sunday
marking the start of a much more active period. Given deep layer
subsidence today, rain is not expected once again and high
temperatures will continue to be the talking point. Highs will
climb into the upper 90s today; however, drier air will once again
keep values to below advisory criteria.

Sunday looks to be significantly cooler and soggier as that band of
rather impressive Gulf moisture surges in. PWATS will quickly climb
to nearly 2 inches along the coast. As this moisture gradient lifts
northward, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the area. The best rain chances will exist across the
I-10 corridor where the better moisture is located. Given rather
impressive tropical profiles, heavy rainfall will be the predominant
hazard with any storm and the only thing keeping a more substantial
flood issue would be the rather dry antecedent conditions. That may
change as we move on later in the week. Along with the increase rain
chances, increasing southeasterly flow will allow for seas to build
and the rip current risk to rapidly rise from low early Sunday
morning to High by midday Sunday. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper ridge over the eastern states and an evolving broad/weak
upper trof over the western Gulf into the ArkLaTex region along
with a surface ridge over the southeastern states will create a
deep layer southerly flow which brings increasing amounts of
abundant Gulf moisture into much of the southeastern states.
Precipitable water values over the forecast area increase from
1.6-2.2 inches to 2.0-2.45 inches Sunday night, and similar values
continue into Monday for much of the area except for somewhat
drier air working into eastern portions of the area in the
afternoon. A series of shortwave progress mostly across the north
central Gulf coast area through the period, and associated
forcing associated with these will mostly favor the western half
of the forecast area. A broad zone of low level convergence was
noted developing mainly near the coast Sunday night, so have gone
with likely pops for extreme southeast Mississippi, extreme
southwest Alabama and part of the western Florida panhandle. Pops
taper off Sunday night to mainly slight chance pops over interior
parts of south central Alabama. For Monday, daytime heating
along with an increase in the strength of the shortwaves and a
modest low level convergent zone again developing near much of the
coast will support likely to categorical pops for the western and
central portion of the area with chance pops for the remainder of
the area. For Monday night, forcing associated with the
shortwaves decreases which along with the loss of daytime heating
and the modest low level convergent zone looking to shift more
into the marine area, have gone with chance pops for much of
southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle with lesser pops or dry conditions elsewhere.
Rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Monday night of 2-4 inches
are possible over extreme southwest Alabama into much of
southeast Mississippi, with the highest values mainly affecting
Stone county. Progressively lower rainfall amounts are expected
for the remainder of the area. While antecedent conditions are
certainly dry, will need to monitor for the potential of flooding
concerns where the higher rainfall totals are expected, especially
over extreme southeast Mississippi. Lows Sunday night and Monday
night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near
the coast. Highs on Monday will be moderated by precipitation and
cloud cover and generally range from around 90 over the eastern
third of the area to the mid 80s elsewhere. A moderate risk of rip
currents Sunday night will be followed by a high risk beginning
on Monday. /29

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The eastern states upper ridge steadily builds into the forecast
region through Wednesday along with progressively drier air
flowing into the forecast area beginning Tuesday night. The upper
ridge is deflected away from the region on Thursday by an
inverted upper trof (in the easterlies) advancing into the
central Gulf. A moist southerly flow will still be in place on
Tuesday, so have gone with likely pops over extreme southeast
Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama with chance to slight
chance pops for much of the remainder of the area. Progressively
lower rain chances follow for Wednesday into Thursday such that by
Thursday dry conditions are expected over interior areas with
slight chance to chance pops over the coastal counties and extreme
southeast Mississippi. For Friday, have gone with slight chance to
chance pops for much of the area as deep layer moisture is
anticipated to improve over the area as the upper trof continues
into the western Gulf, but convective potential will be tempered
by the eastern states upper ridge also building back into the
area. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
today, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a
mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Sunday and
strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf.
Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next
week. Small craft will need to exercise caution and conditions
could exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the middle of the
week. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  75  89  74  86  74  87  75 /  10   0  80  60  80  40  60  30
Pensacola   94  78  88  77  88  77  89  77 /   0   0  80  60  70  40  50  30
Destin      92  79  88  78  89  78  90  77 /  10  10  80  50  60  40  40  30
Evergreen   98  71  93  71  90  71  91  71 /  10  10  60  30  50  20  30  10
Waynesboro  98  72  94  72  85  71  87  71 /  10  10  60  40  70  30  40  20
Camden      98  72  94  72  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  40  20  40  10  20  10
Crestview   99  72  92  71  93  72  92  71 /  10  10  70  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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