Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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107 FXUS64 KMOB 100431 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1130 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A VFR forecast generally prevails through the next 24 hours. A weak frontal boundary will push southward into the area Monday morning and should become oriented near the coast through Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop along this feature, especially near the coast Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. A few storms developing near the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/ KJKA terminals will be capable of producing brief strong winds gusts and localized MVFR or lower conditions Monday afternoon. /21 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An upper level trough will dig southward across the eastern states through Monday. This shortwave will help to push a weak frontal boundary into the region on Monday which will likely reach the coast or move just offshore by the evening hours. As this front moves into the area tomorrow morning an isolated shower or storm is possible, however it will likely take until the afternoon as temps warm and the atmosphere becomes more unstable for scattered showers and storms to develop. Highs will warm into the upper 80s and low 90s ahead of the approaching front during the afternoon. The hot temps combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s will lead to CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. The strong instability combined with an approaching boundary will lead to scattered showers and storms developing during the afternoon and spreading south ahead of the boundary. SPC has outlooked much of the area in marginal risk for the possibility of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Heat index values will again reach the 100 to 105 degree mark in some areas. A low risk of rip currents continues through the near term. /13 LONG TERM... (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and storms will be ongoing as we roll into Monday evening as the cold front continues to slide toward the Gulf. Highest POPs Monday night into the overnight hours will be across the coastal counties before the rain slides further south. In the wake of the front, the local area (land portions) briefly dries out once again through mid-week, but POPs remain over the coastal waters as the front drifts across the northern Gulf. Expect a dry airmass to settle overhead through at least Wednesday with northerly surface winds ushering in PWATs below an inch as the a surface high builds the eastern portion of the CONUS. The latter part of the week and this upcoming weekend features a rather complex set-up with a larger amount of uncertainty than usual. A shortwave pivots toward the region on Wednesday and broadens out as it dips toward the Gulf on Thursday. This elongated feature (draped from the FL peninsula down toward the southwestern Gulf) will hover over the Gulf through next weekend as a ridge builds to our north. This upper level feature may begin to retrograde westward across the northern Gulf toward the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, down at the surface, a trough may develop somewhere over the Gulf at some point Wednesday through Sunday, but specifics remain tricky in this pattern given the uncertainty surrounding the activity in the CAG - Central American Gyre. Regardless, we eventually transition toward a wetter pattern, it`s just a matter of when the moisture. Trends in recent guidance indicates that the slug of moisture may not slingshot into our area until late in the weekend with just typical afternoon sea breeze convection Friday and Saturday. Again, it is worth noting that we have low confidence in the timing of the heavy rain associated with the features over the Gulf. The heat is ON as we roll deeper into the week and weekend with highs soaring into the mid to low 90s area-wide. Heat indices start creeping back up above 100 Friday as the moisture begins to increase. Next Saturday and Sunday have the potential to be very toasty with heat indices climbing to 100-106 area-wide. Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is LOW through Tuesday night. Expect to see a bump to a MODERATE risk by mid-week and eventually a HIGH risk as early as Thursday. It is worth noting that recent RCMOS probabilities slow down the progression of the increased risk of rip currents, but we will re-assess the trends in the guidance again tonight. The risk may fluctuate late in the week until the guidance gets a better handle on the surface features in the Gulf late this week and into the weekend. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will persist through Monday, with northerly flow expected for Tuesday as a front pushes through. A weak system will begin to develop by mid week, with moderate easterly flow expected for the latter half of the week. Seas are also expected to increase by late week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 92 71 90 69 92 70 93 / 0 40 30 10 10 10 10 20 Pensacola 76 92 73 90 72 91 73 91 / 0 40 50 20 10 10 10 40 Destin 78 89 75 89 74 90 76 90 / 0 40 60 20 10 20 20 40 Evergreen 71 92 66 89 64 92 65 95 / 10 40 20 0 0 10 10 20 Waynesboro 71 90 66 88 64 90 65 93 / 20 40 10 0 0 10 0 10 Camden 71 89 65 86 64 89 66 93 / 20 40 10 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 71 94 68 92 66 95 68 95 / 0 40 30 10 10 20 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob