Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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903 FXUS63 KMPX 260040 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 740 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm front pushes northeastward this afternoon/evening, bringing a chance for showers/storms across western and central Minnesota. - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially tomorrow when widespread rain is likely across southeast MN and western WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A warm front, stretching from central South Dakota towards southern Minnesota, is slowly pushing its way northeastward this afternoon. A broad area of radar reflectivity returns draped over eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota will follow the warm front as it heads into western and central Minnesota later this afternoon/evening. Given the dry layer of air near the surface, many locations have not been reporting any precip making it to the ground. This is expected to be the case for the majority of south- central and eastern Minnesota as well. We have maintained a narrow line of likely (50-70%) PoPs extending from Lac Qui Parle towards Kanabec counties in Minnesota, where the forcing will be strongest and moisture more abundant. A few pockets of stronger storms are possible, especially further north where we could see up to 50kts of effective bulk shear and 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This line will weaken overnight, giving a brief break until showers/storms pick back tomorrow morning. This second round will primarily impact the southeastern corner of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but it could clip the Twin Cities metro late morning into the afternoon. Areas that see rain tomorrow could receive around 0.25-0.5" with locally higher amounts possible as you head into central Wisconsin. Following the system tomorrow, a pair of shortwaves are still on track to ride along the primary circulation and bring additional chances for rain early next week. QPF remains low, with only up to a couple tenths expected through both disturbances. The latest forecast package favors the first wave to track a little further west than the second, further limiting any notion of this being a period of widespread, soaking rain. While a rumble of thunder will not be out of the question, the potential for anything severe looks to be low for both waves (weak lapse rates and limited 0-3km MUCAPE). The area of broad troughing ultimately slides east as ridging builds in over the central Plains around mid-week. This should result in a small stretch of nice outdoor days, with mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures during this time frame will attempt to push into the upper 70s for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. We could be looking at another active period by the end of the week, with global models hinting at a potentially deep, strengthening trough slicing through the Upper Midwest. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a strong moisture plume extending from the Gulf up into parts of northern Manitoba and Ontario. While severity and timing are difficult to lock in this far out, there is certainly potential for another wet and active period heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Biggest trend from the going TAFs is the rapidly diminishing precip chances, unless you`re at EAU. The band of rain expected from west central through central MN looks to mostly lose its battle with dry air, with virga and occasional sprinkles expected at AXN/STC. The system that comes across Iowa tonight continues to drift south, with only EAU for sure looking to get some light rain out of this going into Sunday morning. Though sites like MSP/MKT/RNH now look most likely to remain dry, they will still see 5-8 hours of MVFR, possibly IFR cigs as the low clips the southeast tip of MN. KMSP...kept a precip mention in for Sunday morning, but demoted it to a prob30 group as it looks like -RA slides just to the southeast of the field. Low cigs still look like a lock, with cigs down to 012 possible. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind VRB 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...MPG