Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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205 FXUS63 KMPX 050915 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with highest chances generally along and north of I-94. Damaging winds and hail are possible with any stronger storms that develop. - Breezy northwest winds are expected through the end of the week with gusts of 35-40 MPH possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The last of the showers from yesterday are winding down across western Wisconsin early this morning with clear skies back to the west. Today will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and small hail. This threat can be broken down into two separate regions; one across central/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin (where the SPC SWODY1 Marginal Risk lies) and another across western and southern Minnesota. A second, stronger wave associated with the cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will move across the region. Winds at the base of this trough (across the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota) will be very strong with speeds ranging from 40-50kts at 850mb to 70-80kts at 500mb. These winds will likely mix down with any showers that develop and pose a threat for damaging winds. While afternoon convection is possible, the biggest question is how dry air in the low levels would impact the amount of rain actually making it to the surface with these winds. After much collaboration with neighboring offices, decided the best way to handle this threat was a Wind Advisory. Further north, the set up is a little more typical and straightforward as there is better moisture to work with. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop by this afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates allowing for a damaging wind and hail threat. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. These should not be as efficient rain producers as we`ve seen the past few days, so QPF amounts are only around 0.10-0.25". The remainder of the work week should be dry with gusty northwest winds continuing on the backside of this system as it pulls away over the northern Great Lakes. Gusts of 30-40 MPH are expected Thursday with things trending down a bit Friday as the low continues to move eastward. Relatively dry and pleasant weather is expected through the remainder of the period with only a low chance for showers on Saturday. Looking into next week, warmer weather returns with highs back in the 80s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Rain and MVFR cigs have cleared our Minnesota terminals, but showers and MVFR conditions will hang on for another couple of hours for KRNH and KEAU. West-southwest winds will increase during the mid morning hours with gusts of 25-30kts. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop during the early afternoon and continue through the early evening hours, but confidence on coverage is fairly low, so opted to stick with PROB30s except for Wisconsin sites where chances are high enough to include TEMPO groups. Winds will turn more northwesterly and diminish somewhat by the end of the period. KMSP...As mentioned above and from the previous forecast, kept the PROB30 for TSRA going for now. Winds may go southwest for a few hours early this morning but should remain under 10kts before taking on a more westerly component. Otherwise, no additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele- Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...Dye