437
FXUS63 KMQT 062359
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Non-severe thunderstorm chances continue in the east through
  this evening.
- Showery weather and much cooler conditions through the
  weekend under the influence of low pressure, then warming and
  drying early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

RAP analysis shows a vertically stacked trough over much of northern
Ontario that continues to send shortwave impulses through the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region. This is the forcing for the
showers and occasional thunderstorms evident on radar returns. Most
of these storms have gone up and come back down in just a handful of
radar scans, but a few of them have had vigorous enough updrafts to
produce gusty winds (peak so far as of 18Z is a gust of 32 kt at
KESC) and pea sized hail. The outlook for these storms is fairly low
as peak SBCAPE in the 12Z HREF is only around 500 J/kg and not much
shear to work with. Precipitation rates are also not expected to be
extreme as HREF mean total precip by 12Z Friday is only around a
tenth to a half of inch.

With cool, northwesterly flow aloft, temperatures are once again
cooler day-over-day, with highs only in the 60s and upper 50s today
and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Mixing is allowing a 30-35 kt jet at
950mb to mix towards the surface, leading to gusty W and NW winds at
the surface through tonight. As troughing weakens and shift
northeast, expect a drying trend overnight with regards to
precipitation, though broken to overcast skies will prevail through
at least 12Z Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over eastern
Ontario 12z Fri with a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies
with a ridge across the southern plains and southern Rockies. The
northern Rockies shortwave moves into the northern plains 00z Sat
and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. The shortwave moves into the
lower Great Lakes 00z Sun and into New England 00z Mon. Starts to
dry out Fri with next system arriving late Fri night into Sat with
some pops hanging on into Sunday.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern
U.S. and a trough in the western U.S. 12z Mon with a ridge in the
northern plains. Upper troughing moves into the northern plains 12z
Tue which moves through the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. Ridging then
moves into the northern plains 12z Thu. Temperatures will go from
below normal on Monday to above normal Tuesday onward. Dry for Sun
night into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A nearly stationary low pressure over Ontario results in a steady
flow of marginally MVFR/VFR cigs across our 3 TAF sites. Each TAF
site has been VFR for several hours now so tend to favor VFR
prevailing, but model guidance indicates a lowering trend this
evening with the loss of heating. Have accounted for this
possibility with a scattered MVFR deck until confidence in this
happening increases. Regardless of what happens tonight, all sites
improve to VFR Friday morning after sunrise. Breezy WNW winds
continue at all terminals through Friday, but gustiness was
left out of TAFs during the nighttime.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds will continue to be around 20 knots tonight through Friday
before falling mostly below 20 knots Friday night through Tuesday.
No strong systems affecting the area through the period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...07