Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
823 FXUS64 KOHX 060159 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 859 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms in northern AL have weakened as they continue northward into the mid state, but still pose a severe threat for northern AL. Some gusty winds remain possible with the showers and storms moving into the southwest zones, but CAMs continue to weaken the activity as the evening goes on. But, will continue to monitor for any strengthening, or, any additional development with the approaching cold front from the northwest. Made some minor edits to the near term forecast to reflect latest guidance. No other changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather lasting at least until the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will push in from the west after 00Z. They will be spotty in nature as the high resolution models have been overdoing the precipitation. Will utilize VCSH/VCTS for stations west of the Plateau (KCKV/KBNA/KMQY). The line clears off the Plateau by 17-20Z. There could still be a period of MVFR/IFR CIGs around sunrise before returning to VFR. Also MVFR/IFR will be possible in the heavier thunderstorms. Winds will be westerly and then turning northwesterly and gusting to 20kts after 22Z when the weak front pushes through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 88 63 84 / 40 10 0 0 Clarksville 67 86 59 83 / 40 0 0 0 Crossville 64 80 55 75 / 50 50 0 0 Columbia 68 88 60 82 / 40 10 0 0 Cookeville 66 82 56 77 / 50 40 0 0 Jamestown 65 81 55 75 / 50 50 0 0 Lawrenceburg 67 86 61 80 / 50 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 68 88 60 82 / 40 20 0 0 Waverly 67 87 61 82 / 50 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Barnwell SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....12