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000
FXUS64 KOHX 231132
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, Middle Tennessee was experiencing some nice
cool and tranquil weather, under a shield of benign cirrus
ballooning up from the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures
were in the upper 30s to lower 40s, headed toward lows in the
middle to upper 30s. Expect some patchy fog through sunrise,
especially around rivers and lakes. Some of that fog could become
locally dense.

A dry cold front, that was sweeping through the St. Louis area
early this morning, will push across Middle Tennessee during the
daylight hours today. The only effect it will have on our weather
will be to switch the winds from the south to the north. A few
upper level impulses will also sweep southeastward across the Mid-
State today and help to suppress the northern edge of our cirrus
shield to the south. As a result, expect mostly sunny weather
today, with temperatures warming into the middle and upper 60s by
mid-afternoon. The Nashville heat island should be able to hit 70.

Quiet weather continues through Wednesday night, with lows
tonight dropping back into the middle and upper 30s. Clouds start
to increase from the southwest Wednesday night, with lows ranging
from the upper 30s in the northeast, to the middle and upper 40s
in the southwest. Highs on Wednesday should be mainly in the lower
and middle 60s.

The remnants of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Willa are still expected
to merge with an area of low pressure near the Texas coast on
Wednesday, and then track eastward along the Gulf coast on Thursday
and Thursday night. This will bring mostly cloudy skies to our area
Thursday, along with a chance for showers. Rain may become likely by
Thursday afternoon over our extreme southwestern counties, and then
become likely area-wide Thursday night.

The low pressure area moves slowly up the southeast Atlantic
seaboard Friday and Saturday, as an upper trough moves out of the
Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee River
Valleys. This helps to keep our skies rather cloudy Friday and
Friday night, along with a continued chance for rain. The rain may
diminish Friday night and Saturday morning. However, by Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night, a shortwave drops southeastward out
of the Midwest and brings us a another shot of at least scattered
light showers.

By late Saturday night things start to dry out a bit from the
west. However, another stinking upper level impulse sweeps through
on Sunday and Sunday night bringing yet another chance for rain.
It`s not until next Monday that things finally start to dry out
and give us a reprieve from all the clouds and showers.

Don`t expect too much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday
through Sunday, with nighttime lows in the 40s and highs mainly in
the 50s to around 60. By Monday we could start to see at least
some highs in the lower 60s over the west.

So enjoy the dry weather today and Wednesday, because Thursday
through Sunday we`ll be in a pretty cloudy, drippy and cool
period. QPF for the entire Thursday through Sunday period is
forecast to be less than an inch.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Other than some brief, shallow fog early this morning, VFR
expected. A dry frontal passage will occur this afternoon with
slightly increasing north winds. BKN-OVC cirrus clouds will
become scattered this afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........13