962
FXUS64 KOHX 270156
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
856 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

With precipitation ending due to diurnal influences wanning, will
keep entire mid state region dry through at least early overnight
hours tonight. Increased fog formation potential across our area
as late evening through overnight hours progress as calm winds
with favorable dewpoint depressions are already noted across most
of mid state region this evening with breaks in cloudiness noted.
These trends are expected to continue through remainder of
nighttime hours. Current regional temperature trends continue to
be in line with overnight forecasted low values across our area.
Made some minor adjustments to cloud coverage and precipitation
coverage through tomorrow night. Remainder of forecast continues
to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

It`s another day in this soupy air mass you could swim in. There`s
ample moisture around the area with the remnants of a morning MCV
sparking some storms and heavy rain in the southwestern counties.
The rain rates have been impressive at time and that has lead to
some localized ponding. North of the remnant MCV, a surface
boundary is draped across I-40. This will likely spark more
showers and storms this afternoon. With PWAT values in the
1.7-1.9" range and slow storm motions, some localized flood will
be possible this afternoon. Shower and storm coverage will
decrease this evening and areas of fog could develop again after
midnight through early Saturday morning.

The broad trough that has assisted in the active pattern we`ve
seen this week will pull east overnight with upper ridging
building in on Saturday. We don`t get rid of all of the rain
chances on Saturday as the moisture will remain in place.
Scattered storms will develop in the afternoon but should not be
quite as widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The upper ridging won`t last long as a trough organizes over the
southern plains on Saturday and moves toward our area on Sunday.
Widespread showers and storms are likely on Sunday. Once again,
heavy rain will be likely with showers and storms as PWAT values
increase to possibly over 2". Storm motions will be quicker on
Sunday, but rain rates will be high enough to potentially cause
some localized flooding.

A large upper high will build over Texas on Monday and will expand
eastward toward our area by midweek. With that, temperatures will
increase with highs getting into the mid 90s for the first time in
a couple weeks. The air mass will remain humid which will have a
two effects. First, afternoon storm chances will remain in the
forecast. Second, heat index values could climb to the 105-110
range by Wednesday afternoon for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Radar trends indicate shower activity has ended or will end
shortly with obs reporting SCT-BKN mid clouds and light/variable
winds. With the rain this afternoon some fog development is
anticipated overnight, with MVFR at CKV, BNA, and MQY, and LIFR
at SRB and CSV. After sunrise tomorrow look for building diurnal
cu with light southeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  90  73  87 /  10  30  30  90
Clarksville    69  86  72  84 /  10  30  40  90
Crossville     64  84  67  82 /  10  30  10  70
Columbia       69  87  71  85 /  20  30  30  90
Cookeville     66  85  70  82 /  10  30  20  80
Jamestown      64  86  68  82 /  10  20  10  70
Lawrenceburg   69  86  71  84 /  10  30  30  90
Murfreesboro   69  89  72  86 /  10  30  40  80
Waverly        69  86  70  85 /  20  40  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....05