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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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000 FXUS64 KOHX 231729 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated suite of forecast products to reflect severe tstm watch number 204 effective until 3 PM CDT. && .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms are just off to the west of the TN River, and will head into the southwest zones within the hour. Storms have weakened slightly when they were back towards the MS River, however with daytime heating, storms will be heading into a more favorable environment as the day progresses. MUCAPE values currently over 1000 J/kg look to increase to over 2000 J/kg this afternoon, and with decent shear values around and above 30 knots, some strong to severe storms will be possible. Main threat will be damaging winds, but cant rule out some hail as a few models have some steeper mid level lapse rates in the early afternoon. Storms look to impact the mid state during most of the day, with CAMs showing slightly more activity south of I-40, and possibly more development north of I-40 during the afternoon. As the upper shortwave progresses eastward today, convection should weaken towards sunset associated with that trough, however an additional trough will swing through overnight. This will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, and models are showing a MCS move through the area during the overnight and early morning hours. After today, mainly left the forecast as is and just adjusted today`s grids to match current obs trends and PoPs leaning towards CAM consensus. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...With main swath of stronger convective activity south of terminals approaching 23/18Z, mentioned only VCTS with MVFR to VFR ceiling conditions expected thru 23/20Z-24/01Z. Went close to 23/12Z reasoning for remainder of valid TAF period. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......31 AVIATION........31
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