743
FXUS64 KOHX 141140
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will
  near or surpass 100F for heat indicies.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Rinse and repeat. The forecast for today hasn`t budged from
yesterday`s. For the most part, we have 40-50% PoPs across Middle
Tennessee, mainly during the peak heating period. A surface and
upper ridge of high pressure remains anchored to the immediate
east of Middle Tennessee, so there has been no change in air mass
characteristics. We will once again enjoy plenty of instability
with sky-high Precipitable Water values, but also very little wind
shear and weak mid-level lapse rates. The SPC does have a
marginal risk across roughly the western half of the mid state,
with damaging wind being the only threat. Otherwise, we`ll keep an
eye out for any slow-moving storms that might produce high
rainfall rates. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s to
low 90s -- very close to seasonal values -- with heat indices
topping out in the upper 90s to right around 100 degrees in a lot
of places.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Storms have dissipated this evening giving way to a quiet but very
warm and muggy night. A few showers and storms remain well north
across Kentucky and expect that to continue through the overnight
hours. Some patchy dense fog will develop especially in areas
that experienced heavy downpours earlier today.

Monday should be a carbon copy of Sunday`s weather with another
round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Impacts should be similar with gusty winds, lightning,
and brief heavy rainfall.

For Tuesday...coverage of storms looks to be slightly less and as
somewhat of a warming trend takes shape with Highs in the low 90s
expected. The Heat Index readings will also start climbing closer
to that triple digit mark as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Wednesday through Friday look quite similar with best coverage of
afternoon and evening convection remaining across the Plateau
region. With that said, locations west of the Plateau will
definitely feel the affects of the lack of storm and cloud
coverage as Highs in the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values
100+F can be expected.

By the weekend, a little more uncertainty takes shape with a
bit better coverage of storms possibly on Saturday. However if
that doesn`t quite materialize, it`s safe to say the lack of
convection and cloud cover definitely equals hotter temps to deal
with as we go through the weekend and into next week. So yeah,
welcome to Peak Summer in Middle Tennessee!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A ridge of high pressure remains situated just east of Middle
Tennessee, and the air mass characteristics are a carbon-copy of
what we observed 24 hrs. ago. Morning fog at KCSV and KSRB has
dissipated, so we`re VFR everywhere except a brief MVFR ceiling at
KMQY. As before, we`ll start off with PROB30 remarks for TS/CBs
during the afternoon, then upgrade to TEMPO once convection
develops so that we can have greater confidence in timing. Once
again, we expect radiation fog overnight at KCSV and KSRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  74  94  75 /  50  20  10  10
Clarksville    89  73  90  74 /  50  20  10  10
Crossville     87  67  90  69 /  50  10  20  20
Columbia       92  72  93  73 /  50  10  20  10
Cookeville     87  69  90  71 /  50  20  10  20
Jamestown      87  68  90  70 /  50  20  30  20
Lawrenceburg   91  71  92  72 /  40  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   92  72  95  73 /  50  20  10  10
Waverly        90  72  91  73 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Rose