Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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903
FXUS64 KOHX 140452
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1052 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

After some scattered showers this afternoon, a solid batch of rain
is lifting into the west and south this evening and will
overspread the area over the next several hours as the upper
trough swings closer to the area. Rain could be heavy
periodically. The 00z OHX sounding shows elevated instability
above a stout 850 mb inversion, so I would expected occasional
thunder with the pockets of heavier rain. The rain will slowly
clear west to east starting close to dawn Thursday morning but
some patches of drizzle and low clouds will hang around especially
east of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure
system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through
tonight. Mainly light showers have already spread across most of
our western counties with warm advection and lift out ahead of the
main system. This batch of showers with very isolated thunder
will continue to move northeast through this afternoon with less
than one quarter inch for most locations. There will be breaks in
the rain later this afternoon after this batch moves through the
area. Our eastern / Plateau counties will stay mostly rain-free
this afternoon. Heavier, widespread rain with embedded thunder
will spread quickly across the area this evening as the main
frontal lift and dynamics arrive. Some heavy downpours are
expected late this evening with brief standing water on some
roads and in low spots. However, the system will be moving fast
enough to keep flooding potential low. Average rainfall amounts of
1 to 1.5 inches are expected. Some spots may top 2 inches,
especially in the northwest counties and across Nashville Metro.
The embedded thunder will not result in severe storms, but winds
will be gusty, over 30 mph at times through this evening.

Rain will end by daybreak Thursday for areas west of I-65, and
most of the showers will taper off for the Plateau by lunchtime. A
good deal of cloudiness will linger and it will feel November-
ish. Temps will by mostly in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of
the week. Temperatures will be near normal.

The weekend looks fantastic with dry surface high pressure in
place and a building upper ridge. The nights will be seasonably
cool. Days will be sunny with mostly lower 60s Saturday and 60s to
low 70s for Sunday.

Looking ahead into next week, things could become more active.
The next shower chance may come Tuesday with a cold front. The
front will be associated with an upper trough that is expected to
deepen significantly just to our north. This setup would bring a
shot of colder air for the second half of next week, perhaps
giving BNA the first real freeze of this fall season. This does
not look like record-setting air, but perhaps the coldest so far
this fall and the first multi-day below-normal stretch since mid
October.

Models are still showing a tropical system brewing in the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. The strength and impacts of this system are
unknown at this time., but the developing trough pattern across
the eastern states will likely kick whatever develops northeastward
across Florida and into the Atlantic midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Showers continue to move east across the area, bringing MVFR/IFR
cigs and vis. Most of the showers should move out of the area
after 12Z, with lingering light rain possible at KCSV/KSRB through
the morning hours. Strong southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots
gusting to around 25 knots will be possible at times overnight,
becoming more westerly/northwesterly from west to east after 12Z
around 10 to 15 knots. Cigs should remain MVFR for most of the TAF
period, with IFR possible overnight at times for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  62  47  62 / 100  20   0   0
Clarksville    52  59  44  60 / 100  10   0   0
Crossville     44  58  43  55 / 100  70   0   0
Columbia       52  61  44  61 / 100  20   0   0
Cookeville     49  59  45  57 / 100  50   0   0
Jamestown      46  59  44  55 / 100  70  10   0
Lawrenceburg   52  60  43  60 / 100  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   52  62  46  60 / 100  20   0   0
Waverly        50  59  43  61 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Barnwell