Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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903 FXUS64 KOHX 140452 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 744 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 After some scattered showers this afternoon, a solid batch of rain is lifting into the west and south this evening and will overspread the area over the next several hours as the upper trough swings closer to the area. Rain could be heavy periodically. The 00z OHX sounding shows elevated instability above a stout 850 mb inversion, so I would expected occasional thunder with the pockets of heavier rain. The rain will slowly clear west to east starting close to dawn Thursday morning but some patches of drizzle and low clouds will hang around especially east of I-65. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through tonight. Mainly light showers have already spread across most of our western counties with warm advection and lift out ahead of the main system. This batch of showers with very isolated thunder will continue to move northeast through this afternoon with less than one quarter inch for most locations. There will be breaks in the rain later this afternoon after this batch moves through the area. Our eastern / Plateau counties will stay mostly rain-free this afternoon. Heavier, widespread rain with embedded thunder will spread quickly across the area this evening as the main frontal lift and dynamics arrive. Some heavy downpours are expected late this evening with brief standing water on some roads and in low spots. However, the system will be moving fast enough to keep flooding potential low. Average rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected. Some spots may top 2 inches, especially in the northwest counties and across Nashville Metro. The embedded thunder will not result in severe storms, but winds will be gusty, over 30 mph at times through this evening. Rain will end by daybreak Thursday for areas west of I-65, and most of the showers will taper off for the Plateau by lunchtime. A good deal of cloudiness will linger and it will feel November- ish. Temps will by mostly in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of the week. Temperatures will be near normal. The weekend looks fantastic with dry surface high pressure in place and a building upper ridge. The nights will be seasonably cool. Days will be sunny with mostly lower 60s Saturday and 60s to low 70s for Sunday. Looking ahead into next week, things could become more active. The next shower chance may come Tuesday with a cold front. The front will be associated with an upper trough that is expected to deepen significantly just to our north. This setup would bring a shot of colder air for the second half of next week, perhaps giving BNA the first real freeze of this fall season. This does not look like record-setting air, but perhaps the coldest so far this fall and the first multi-day below-normal stretch since mid October. Models are still showing a tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. The strength and impacts of this system are unknown at this time., but the developing trough pattern across the eastern states will likely kick whatever develops northeastward across Florida and into the Atlantic midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Showers continue to move east across the area, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs and vis. Most of the showers should move out of the area after 12Z, with lingering light rain possible at KCSV/KSRB through the morning hours. Strong southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots gusting to around 25 knots will be possible at times overnight, becoming more westerly/northwesterly from west to east after 12Z around 10 to 15 knots. Cigs should remain MVFR for most of the TAF period, with IFR possible overnight at times for all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 54 62 47 62 / 100 20 0 0 Clarksville 52 59 44 60 / 100 10 0 0 Crossville 44 58 43 55 / 100 70 0 0 Columbia 52 61 44 61 / 100 20 0 0 Cookeville 49 59 45 57 / 100 50 0 0 Jamestown 46 59 44 55 / 100 70 10 0 Lawrenceburg 52 60 43 60 / 100 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 52 62 46 60 / 100 20 0 0 Waverly 50 59 43 61 / 100 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Reagan SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Barnwell