Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231729
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products to reflect severe tstm
watch number 204 effective until 3 PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms are just off to the west of the TN
River, and will head into the southwest zones within the hour.
Storms have weakened slightly when they were back towards the MS
River, however with daytime heating, storms will be heading into a
more favorable environment as the day progresses. MUCAPE values
currently over 1000 J/kg look to increase to over 2000 J/kg this
afternoon, and with decent shear values around and above 30 knots,
some strong to severe storms will be possible. Main threat will be
damaging winds, but cant rule out some hail as a few models have
some steeper mid level lapse rates in the early afternoon.

Storms look to impact the mid state during most of the day, with
CAMs showing slightly more activity south of I-40, and possibly
more development north of I-40 during the afternoon. As the upper
shortwave progresses eastward today, convection should weaken
towards sunset associated with that trough, however an additional
trough will swing through overnight. This will bring additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms, and models are showing a
MCS move through the area during the overnight and early morning
hours. After today, mainly left the forecast as is and just
adjusted today`s grids to match current obs trends and PoPs
leaning towards CAM consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...With main swath of stronger convective activity
south of terminals approaching 23/18Z, mentioned only VCTS with
MVFR to VFR ceiling conditions expected thru 23/20Z-24/01Z.
Went close to 23/12Z reasoning for remainder of valid TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........31



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