862
FXUS64 KOHX 130341
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1041 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1034 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Temperatures warm through the weekend.

- High rain and thunderstorm chances return Sunday night. Severe
  threat is low.

- Temperatures fall sharply Monday with a low chance for light
  snow early morning. A hard freeze is expected Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A quiet and chilly night is ahead as low temperatures fall into the
30s once again. Winds will turn southerly overnight and strengthen
tomorrow with gusts of 20-30 mph. These southerly winds will also
allow for temperatures to start to rebound with highs warming
into the 60s. It should be another nice day with mostly sunny
skies and dry conditions prevailing. The warming trend continues
into Saturday with temperatures warming into the upper-60s to
low-70s, giving us another gorgeous day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Temperatures continue their upward trend for one more day on Sunday
as highs warm into the mid-70s. But then we`ll be in for the quite
the temperature shock. By Sunday, an upper-level trough will be
deepening over the Great Plains with the surface low near the Great
Lakes area. As a very strong upper-level jet is steered overhead,
surface southerly winds will strengthen. NBM probabilities for
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph have come up to 60-80% on Sunday. The
cold front will sweep through the area Sunday night, bringing high
rain and thunderstorm chances. The severe potential Sunday night
is low at this time due to limited instability. The front should
be east of Middle TN by early Monday morning, and then
temperatures plummet. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will turn into
highs in the 40s on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning will
feature some of the coldest temperatures we`ve experienced in a
few weeks with lows falling into the upper-teens to low-20s. There
is still a low chance for post-frontal snow Monday morning with
this cold air, however, with the recent warmth and lack of deep
moisture by the time snow begins, only minor accumulations are
expected. Best chances of getting a half an inch are along the
Plateau where the NBM gives a 20-40% chance for this.

The chilly temperatures continue into Tuesday with highs staying in
the 40s. But southerly flow will return, resulting in a gradual
warming trend through the week with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Light winds out there this evening as we transition to more SW and
gusty winds through the overnight and through Friday. Widespread
VFR conditions through the TAF period. LLWS around 40-45 kts at
2,000 ft develops after 08z and then diminishes after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    40  67  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     33  61  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       36  67  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     35  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      33  61  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   36  65  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   36  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        40  66  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Cravens