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061
FXUS64 KOHX 051928
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
128 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

It`s another glorious day across Middle Tennessee with mostly
sunny skies and large diurnal warming owing to low surface dew
points. A surface ridge has also slipped across the mid state,
allowing for the onset of return southerly flow. Look for
increasing cloudiness later this afternoon and especially during
the evening as a surface front approaches Middle Tennessee from
the northwest. By 12Z, surface lows will be centered over the
Arklatex and also the Great Lakes, with a surface front connecting
the two. With the former surface low passing just to our south,
showers affecting Middle Tennessee tonight and tomorrow will be
mostly isentropically lifted. There is very little instability
associated with this system, so we`ll leave thunder out of the
forecast. QPF for tonight and tomorrow ranges from just a few
hundredths of an inch across the northern Cumberland Plateau to
nearly 1/2" over southwestern Wayne County. Most of the
precipitation should be gone by 00Z Saturday, with slightly cooler
temperatures this weekend and still some cloudiness lingering
through the weekend. The next active weather system will work its
way into Middle Tennessee Sunday night and Monday. A deep low
pressure center moving across the Great Lakes will then drag a
strong cold front across the mid state Monday night, with still
some lingering effects on Tuesday. Cold advection behind this
front will be pronounced, with temperatures well below seasonal
normals settling in Tuesday night and lasting at least through
Thursday. At this time, storm total QPF from Sunday night through
Tuesday ranges from around an inch around Clarksville & Dover to
around 1.75" near the Alabama state line. Hazardous weather is not
expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. SKC expected at airports this afternoon before VFR cigs
develop tonight ahead of the next system that will bring -RA to
airports near the end and after the current TAF period. For now
will keep VCSH mention in at terminals after 07-10Z. Light south
winds are anticipated through tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  53  40  55  43 /  20  50   0   0  10
Clarksville    44  52  38  52  42 /  30  50   0   0  10
Crossville     39  52  37  53  38 /  20  50  10  10   0
Columbia       43  52  40  56  43 /  20  60  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   43  52  41  56  44 /  20  60  10  10  10
Waverly        45  51  40  53  43 /  30  60   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Shamburger