Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 260432

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018




Echoes are showing up on radar crossing the TN River Valley, but
drier air in the low levels is preventing any precip from reaching
the surface thus far. As the upper shortwave gets closer to the
area, showers will eventually win over the drier low levels and
rain will begin in the west. Short term model consensus has
showers beginning just before midnight in the southwest zones,
and mainly impacting areas south of I-40 overnight. Some light
rain out ahead/north of the better chances may impact other areas,
but the better shot at rain will be in the morning and afternoon
on Thursday.

Just made some simple changes to match up with current obs trends,
and tweaked pops a bit as well to line up with model consensus and
current thinking. Rest of the forecast looks good.



VFR cigs will continue into Thursday morning at all airports with
VCSH as light rain approaches from the west. -SHRA expected to
reach BNA/MQY around 10Z, CKV around 12Z, and CSV around 13Z per
latest HRRR model runs. Low level dry air look to keep cigs/vis in
VFR category after rain arrives until late Thursday
morning/afternoon when low levels saturate. Light and variable
winds tonight will become northeast to east on Thursday.





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