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000
FXUS64 KOHX 291123
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Used consensus blend model run through next Thursday per overall
good agreement between model solutions. All in all, not much
change from previous forecast reasoning. Isolated showers across
mid state presently, but convective activity is expected to
increase as morning hours progress into afternoon hours as main
upper trough axis shifts eastward across Tennessee Valley and a
surface cold front pushes through mid state. Despite upper trough
and surface frontal boundary movement across area, there will be
minimal potential of strong to severe convection due to marginal
CAPE/shear/lapse rates aloft, but cannot rule out a strong
afternoon diurnally driven storm or two either. All rain should
end by early this evening. By the mid evening hours, area will be
at the beginning of a generally prolonged dry period of weather
through mid week next week. With central Canadian based surface
high pressure influences building in behind surface frontal
passage, cooler air will be ushered into mid state region as the
weekend progresses. Highs today will be around seasonal normal
values. However, lows tonight will be a few degrees cooler than
normal. Highs over the weekend will be generally mid to upper 70s.
Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s. However, lows on Sunday
night will be around 50 for locations across and just west of
Cumberland Plateau Region to mid 50s elsewhere.

From Monday onward, 29/00Z models support previous model runs
showing large upper level ridge building over the plains with
500mb heights rising across mid state region. This means a
return to seasonably warm temperatures with hot and humid
conditions as next work week progresses. Highs on Monday and
lows on Monday night will be around seasonal normal values.
However, temperatures will warm into upper 80s to lower 90s,
mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region by Thursday afternoon with
similar temperatures expected Friday afternoon. Lows will
generally be mild in mid to upper 60s. Mid state region,
especially eastern portions, depicted to be on edge of strong
northwest flow aloft across Midwest and Ohio Valley Regions.
Blended model solutions continue to show rain chances will return
by Wednesday night into Thursday per an MCS slip down into mid
state region from Kentucky. This should also mark return to area
round-the-clock rain chances through remainder of work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...This morning, a cold front is situated along the
Mississippi River with just a few showers showing up on radar
across Middle Tennessee. The front will make its way slowly
eastward during the next several hours, and is expected to make
its way through the mid state later this afternoon and early
evening. HRRR shows a broken line of showers forming along and
just ahead of the front as it pushes through Middle Tennessee.
Activity won`t be widespread and the probability of TS is low
enough that we`ll only mention showers in the TAF`s. Expect VFR wx
outside of these afternoon/early evening showers.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........08