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000
FXUS64 KOHX 262255
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
555 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few echoes are starting to pop up on radar this afternoon around
the area, and models suggest that activity will become more
scattered for the late afternoon and early evening. CAMs hinted at
additional convection starting this afternoon with this morning`s
runs ahead of an upper shortwave and existing convection in MO.
Even though shear is quite weak, enough instability and dry air
exist for some of the developing storms to produce some damaging
wind gusts. However, this activity looks to be confined to the
northwest zones late this afternoon and early evening before
diurnal support drops around and after sunset. Increased pops
slightly in the northwest as models try to line up better on
timing and coverage of potential convection this evening.

We begin to settle into a normal summertime upper level pattern
for most of the forecast as upper waves move through to our north
and may have an impact over our area when lining up with diurnal
trends. Mainly have isolated/schc pops in the afternoon/evening
timeframe each day, with drier conditions during the overnight and
morning hours. With temperatures holding out in the low to even
mid 90s for highs through next week, it won`t take much to kick
off a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Even with
upper high pressure moving in by Tuesday next week, subtle
disturbances showing up within the ridge look to be enough to keep
pops in the forecast. Even way out in the extended after next
Wednesday, no long term models hint at a stronger trough or better
shot at precip. So, it appears that we will have this summertime
highs in the low 90s/lows in the low 70s with chances for
afternoon thunderstorms into the holiday weekend next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A mid and upper level trough axis will remain camped out across
the western portion of the taf area through the period. This will
act to spawn a few tstms off and on over the next 24 hrs. Other
than vcts coverage, a prob 30 will be utilized at BNA and CKV for
Thu afternoon. As for fog potential, tover values have dropped
some over the last 2 hrs. Numerical guidance also suggests light
fog late tonight, except vsbys could drop as low as 2sm near csv.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........21