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000
FXUS64 KOHX 090752
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
252 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Cool and pleasant weather overnight across the mid state currently.
Temperatures are in the 50s for the most part with calm winds and a
touch of cloudiness across our southwest. This follows a very nice
day yesterday whereby highs only reached the upper 70s to lower 80s
with low humidity.

For today, a surface high will continue to build in from the north.
This feature will govern the weather through Saturday with dry
weather expected. Will refrain from any haze inclusion for today as
vsbys generally held at 10sm during the day yesterday. Hrrr data
shows that vsby conditions should remain constant through today.

Still expecting the next fropa to occur Sunday night. Still looks
like a good swath of moisture in advance and along the boundary.
Upper level axis stacks well with the surface front and thus, not
too much post frontal moisture. However, Organization, instability,
and 850 mb wind mags match up somewhat favorably across west TN
during the late afternoon and evening period. We are currently
outlooked as our western half is in a slight risk for severe. At
any rate, substantial rainfall amounts look very promising with
1-2 inches coming up.

For the near term temps, warming trend in store with near 90 for
Saturday. High temps will back down a few degrees on Sunday while
low temps trend upward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

In the extended forecast, models have lost some confidence in regard
to an overly active pattern upcoming. It still looks as though a
warm front will form to our south but there appears to be more of a
northerly mid and upper level wind component. This could act to keep
the boundary further south though it will still attempt to work
northward. NBM still shows a copious rainfall event, particularly
across our south where NBE numerics promise another 1-2 inches of
rainfall. WPC appears to be on board as well but its important to
note that the NBE pops are still being held down in the 40-50%
range. In other words, quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of a
flood threat. GFS and Euro both keep the heavier rainfall to our
south and southwest. Th Euro however, does bring the warm front
northward by later in the week with precip amounts ramping up.

For the extended temperatures, a good cool down once again for early
next week behind that Sunday night frontal system. Highs on Monday
may hold in the upper 70s to near 80. A slow warming trend will
follow. By late in the week, humidity will be on the increase with
higher min temps reaching the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

CKV/BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV....Some variability in wind direction
possible, with forecasted wind mean direction mentioned in
terminal forecasts thru 10/06Z. Although most haze potential
expected before 09/18Z, did mention continued potential of haze
thru 10/06Z. Otherwise, dry northwesterly flow aloft with apex of
building sfc ridging influences initially across Midwest shifting
southeastward into Carolinas by 10/06Z will provide VFR/SKC
conditions thru forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  58  90  66 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    84  55  88  64 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     76  52  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       84  54  88  65 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     79  54  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      76  52  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   83  55  87  64 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   84  54  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        83  57  88  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright