Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 230435
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1035 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Warm front is located over central AL late this afternoon. Deep
southwesterly flow will act to lift this boundary northward this
evening. Vorticity looks as though it will align more favorable
to the height values as boundary begins to approach. Favorable 850
mb wind curvature will ramp up as speeds increase. Thus...with
enhanced lifting will come the heavier rainfall. Hrrr and current
fcst appears to be on track. It appears that the heavier rainfall
will begin as we approach midnight with the most favorable window
for heavier rain occurring from midnight to 6 am. Greatest amounts
appear to be targeting our northwest half with 1 to 2 inch
amounts expected. If there is any good news to be found...the warm
front will continue to lift northward with the area returning to
a more moderate rainfall scenario after sunrise.

Otw, a slow rise in temps overnight can be expected. Can see no
reason for any grid update at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Warm front to work northward into Middle TN overnight. 850 mb
flow off the surface will ramp up with lift increasing as the
boundary approaches. Look for moderate rainfall to become heavier
after 06z across the CKV and BNA areas. Conditions will remained
socked in after sunrise though the rainfall will decrease some in
intensity. Still looking at the potential for a round of
thunderstorms across western middle TN aft 18Z-20z. Instability
values will be much lower near CSV where a lesser threat of
convection resides.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21


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