824
FXUS64 KOHX 302344
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday.
  Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and localized flooding are
  possible with stronger storms.

- Temperatures warm back well into the 90s late week with drier
  weather currently expected for Independence Day and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

No change with this forecast update. An area of weak mid-level
high pressure is situated to our SE, over the Atlantic while a
mid-level trough axis extends south over the Dakotas/Upper-
Midwest. This trough axis looks to slightly deepen and push E
through Tuesday. This will cause us to remain under this summer
afternoon showers and thunderstorms pattern through Tuesday. There
is a low chance for some storms to become strong to severe across
the NW this afternoon. Afternoon instability and lapse rates look
good, but weak wind shear will lead to very slow to stationary
storm motion. With latest CAMs suggesting CAPE values around
3,000 J/kg and lapse rates between 7-8 C/km, some storms could
develop a strong updraft/downdrafts before ultimately collapsing.
As storms collapse, strong winds could develop. Greatest threats
will be torrential rain, gusty winds, and lightning. This
morning`s balloon launch shows PWATs at 2.06 inches, close to the
daily record of 2.17 inches.

More scattered storms will develop Tuesday as the mid-level
trough moves through the area. Despite a little more upper
support, shear will remain low with 10-15 kts of effective shear.
Soundings still look water-loaded with poor lapse rates which
won`t support much of a severe risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

High pressure builds in from the W as the trough pushes off to
the E, and a surface cold front sweeps through Tuesday night. This
sets up slightly less humid air and dry conditions for mid week,
extending through the holiday weekend. Yes, that`s right, no rain
in the forecast for all of your Independence Day celebrations this
year! I think we at least deserve that, after how wet we have
been. Showers and thunderstorm chances begin to return next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated near SRB and CSV, and
skies are clearing elsewhere. Guidance suggests MVFR cigs ahead
of a front by the early morning hours, with IFR potential at
SRB/CSV, which I`ve handled with TEMPOs. Lower cigs should stick
around for most of the morning with some improvement expected by
17-18z. By then, convection should start to increase in coverage
with embedded TS near the front. I`ve kept PROB30s in for now,
best chances are at SRB/CSV. Winds remain SW to W during the
afternoon at 5-8 kts. Once the front passes through, winds will
shift to NW, and we`ll be treated with drier air which should
result in less active weather for a few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  88  70  90 /  30  60   0   0
Clarksville    73  87  68  89 /  30  30   0   0
Crossville     68  82  65  85 /  40  80  10  10
Columbia       71  85  68  88 /  40  60  10   0
Cookeville     70  83  68  85 /  40  70  10   0
Jamestown      68  82  66  85 /  40  80  10   0
Lawrenceburg   70  85  68  87 /  40  70  20   0
Murfreesboro   71  86  68  90 /  40  70  10   0
Waverly        70  85  67  88 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Sizemore