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000
FXUS64 KOHX 291859
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...

It`s a scorcher out there, folks. Low to mid 90s for everyone west
of the Plateau and dew points in the mid to upper 70s (maybe even
some 80 degree readings along the TN River) are posing a significant
heat risk for many in Middle TN. Heat index values of 105 to 110 are
pretty common, especially along and west of I-65. Some should get a
bit of a break tomorrow as a weak boundary looks to make its way in
here from the north, but I think there`s still going to be a good
portion of Middle TN dealing with similar heat again tomorrow. For
that reason, I`ll go ahead and cobble together another Heat Advisory
for tomorrow afternoon for areas south of I-40 and along and west of
I-65.

As I mentioned, this boundary slips in here after midnight tonight
and while a few models are showing signs of isolated to scattered
storm chances by tomorrow afternoon, I think most will miss the
rain. Of course, any storms that are able to get some resemblance
of an updraft going would carry a strong wind gust or two, but not
overly concerned with any storm severity tomorrow. If you`re done
with the heat, hang tight, I think there`s some good news on the
horizon.

Another boundary is expected to arrive in Middle TN late Saturday
night. This should do two things: A. increase rain/storm chances
and 2. wipe out this heat. A few of the storms on Sunday could
carry some strong wind gusts, but no organized severe weather is
expected. What we should see is temperatures fall back into the
80s Sunday and these numbers should stick around for a few days,
at least. Rain chances should also remain low for the first half
of next week, but an upper level system over the eastern half of
the U.S. may give us at least some scattered storm chances by this
time next week.

Please continue to take the necessary precautions to protect
yourself and loved ones from this heat. Heat related illnesses are
completely avoidable by drinking plenty of water and taking a
break from the sun regularly.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR will continue through much of the TAF period. Light westerly
winds persist, becoming more NNW at the end of the forecast. There
is a chance that additional cloud cover and VCSH/VCTS arrive
around 12z Fri, but confidence was too low to include for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  94  69  93  71 /  10  30  10  10  50
Clarksville    74  90  65  88  67 /  10  10  10  20  60
Crossville     70  85  62  86  65 /  10  30  10  10  50
Columbia       75  96  69  94  70 /   0  40  10  10  50
Lawrenceburg   74  94  68  92  70 /   0  40  10  10  40
Waverly        74  92  67  91  68 /   0  30  10  20  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Clay-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-
Wilson.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for Bedford-Giles-
Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Perry-Rutherford-Wayne-
Williamson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Schaper