470
FXUS66 KOTX 192205
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening
across across the northern mountains. A warming trend is expected
through the week, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid
80s to mid 90s on Saturday. A dry cold front on Sunday will create
elevated fire weather concerns with widespread breezy winds
across the region. This will likely be followed by considerable
cooling with a small chance of showers and thunderstorms into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: Today features another day of cumulus buildups
with a small risk (20%) of thunderstorms in the Cascades,
northern mountains, and Blue Mountains. Thunderstorms will be
capable of small hail, gusty winds, and infrequent lightning.
Temperatures will peak in the 70s and 80s today. The influence of
the 500 mb cold pool over us decreases tomorrow as a trough off
the gulf of alaska starts to form/amplify a shortwave ridge in the
pacific northwest. Tomorrow will feature more sunny conditions
with highs in the 80s to low 90s. One exception is a small chance
of a thunderstorm (20%) over the Paseyten Wilderness. Friday will
be dry and even warmer yet with highs in the 80s to mid 90s.
/Butler

Saturday...Model confidence is high that the upper level ridge axis
will shift into the ID Panhandle by afternoon which will allow
the 850 mb temperatures to peak with a thermal ridge axis focused
over the Inland NW. The result will be the warmest temperatures
weve see this summer for many locations. Right now we have
forecast highs in the mid 80s and 90s, with the hottest readings
expected over the lower Columbia Basin and LC Valley where we
cant rule out a stray 100. The chance of exceeding 100F is around
50% for downtown Lewiston, and a 10-25% from Wenatchee to
Vantage. This should be the peak of the heat though as the ridge
pushes farther east and we begin to see some cooler air work over
the Cascade Crest by late afternoon/evening. This will be
accompanied by increasing west winds over central WA, but nothing
terribly strong.

Saturday night/Sunday...Model agreement remains high the ridge axis
will migrate into eastern MT with an offshore heading onto the
west coast. This will begin a significant cooling trend with high
temperatures dropping anywhere from 6 to 14F which is still a
little warmer than normal, however the bigger news will be the
introduction of winds into the mix. The 850 mb winds arent
terribly strong (20-30 kts) which will equate to surface wind
gusts of 25-35 mph. The winds will combine with relative humidity
values of less than 20% over much of central and eastern WA and
this will result in an enhanced fire concerns especially for areas
with cured fuels which includes much of the Columbia Basin.

Monday through Wednesday...Model agreement begins to falter during
this period as some of the models move the upper level trough
inland while others keep it offshore. The offshore members largely
consist of the Canadian members and if this occurs wed be looking
at only a slight cooling with dry weather. However nearly 2/3rds
of the other models support the trough pattern with high
temperatures cooling into mid 70s to mid 80s. There would also be
a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near the
Canadian border. Stay tuned to see which scenario verifies. fx



&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: For this afternoon another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the northern mountains. There is a
20% chance of thunderstorms for the northern airports from
Winthrop through Omak, eastward through Republic, Colville,
Sandpoint, and Bonners Ferry.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in continued VFR conditions for TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  46  80  51  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  81  51  82  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  90  59  92  59  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       41  80  44  85  49  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      45  78  50  81  50  83 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Kellogg        49  79  56  80  57  85 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     52  87  53  92  58  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  61  91  64  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  85  54  90  57  91 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$