084
FXUS64 KOUN 180410
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

In between the upper level ridge (over the southeast coast) and the
upper trough (northwest CONUS) sits our forecast area. Flow from the
gulf around the western edge of the ridge has brought a field of
cumulus to much of Oklahoma and north Texas. A tight pressure
gradient at the surface (as a cold front approaches from the north)
has been keeping winds gusty today, a pattern which will continue
through the night and into tomorrow as well.

With moist southerly flow continuing at the surface, overnight lows
will be on the warm side (low to mid 70s).

Another warm (low to mid 90s) and windy day tomorrow. Low clouds are
expected to develop from the south overnight, gradually breaking up
tomorrow morning.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As a cold front approaches southern Kansas, we`ll see some low rain
chances across the northern Oklahoma border Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Additional low rain chances are expected Thursday as a storm system
moves up from the gulf.

Another upper wave moving across the northern plains will yield more
low rain chances across northern Oklahoma on Saturday.

Outside of that the forecast remains mostly dry. Slightly cooler
temperatures (80s) Wednesday and Thursday, followed by another
warmup this weekend as the ridge builds back in. By the end of the
forecast period, parts of the forecast area may be approaching
heat advisory criteria.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Stratus with MVFR ceilings is still expected to develop and spread
across the area overnight. Winds will still be pretty strong by
nighttime standards overnight. Despite the surface winds, the
low-level jet is still expected to be strong enough to have more
than the 30 knot wind shear to include low-level wind shear in the
KWWR TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  89  71  87 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         72  92  71  88 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  91  71  87 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           72  93  68  89 /  10   0  20  30
Ponca City OK     75  91  72  89 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         72  90  71  86 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26