150
FXUS64 KOUN 212038
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Hotter tomorrow with widespread readings of 95 to 100 deg F, with
southeastern Oklahoma rising into the low 90`s...

The upper ridge, currently centered near Tennessee, will shift
westward towards southern plains as a shortwave travels across the
northern plains and pushes a cool front towards Oklahoma tomorrow.
Ahead of the front, veered H850 flow will be strongest for areas
generally north of I-40, where H850 temperatures of 25-28 deg C
are prog`d. This enhanced downslope flow should foster the day`s
hottest temperatures (for our CWA) across northern Oklahoma, with
the cities of Gage, Alva, Waynoka, Medford seeing temperatures
near the century mark. This could possibly included locations east
of there (e.g., Ponca City) as low-level WAA appears enhanced
there and some CAMS suggest 100+ deg temperatures there, as well.
Daytime mixing should lower dewpoints enough to keep heat index
values near/below advisory criteria, and so a Heat Advisory is not
being issued at this time. Expect southerly winds to veer
southwesterly and become breezy by early afternoon, which should
help mitigate the effects of heat stress. Strongest winds will be
felt mainly north of I-40 with sustained winds at 15-20 mph and
gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on whether the cold front,
which is currently stationary over Nebraska, enters northern Oklahoma
late Saturday or stalls north of the KS/OK state line. However, there
is somewhat better model agreement of potential isolated to widely
scattered shower/thunderstorm development within a narrow zone (ahead
of the front), which extends from northwest and across northern
Oklahoma late afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level
WAA is expected over far north-central Oklahoma (Grant and Kay
Counties), and so best chances appear to reside in this area. If
activity develops, high cloud-bases will favor primarily lightning
and gusty winds.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The heat continues over the weekend and through much of next
week as the mid-level ridge expands over the southern CONUS.
Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees F are possible on Sunday
for portion of north-central, and a few southern Oklahoma locations.
These heat index values are expected to become increasingly more
widespread on Monday and Tuesday.

Hot and muggy conditions continue on Wednesday, especially south
of I-40, where heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are possible.
As the upper ridge shifts to the four corners region, a shortwave
pushes a cool front into the area late Wednesday which will lower
temperatures and heat index values some for Thursday.

There is a chance of showers/storms on Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Mid to high clouds continue to thin late this morning/early
afternoon.  Meanwhile, cumulus clouds continue to form which
at times will produce VFR ceilings and a slight chance (less
than 10%) of a shower. A southerly wind will prevail through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  95  77  99 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         73  96  76 101 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  96  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  98  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
Durant OK         72  93  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06