251
FXUS64 KOUN 282010
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Rest of Today/Tonight: Storm chances (including potential for
occasional severe outcomes), to continue this evening. Previous
areas of widely scattered storms across northwestern Oklahoma have
lost intensity while sliding into portions of west-central/central
Oklahoma this afternoon. While gusty winds, lightning and brief
heavy rainfall remain possible, severe weather chances have
dramatically dwindled as storms have moved into an airmass
modified by a complex of storms this morning.

This allows attention to turn towards an expected round of
precipitation/storms later this evening (after 7-8 PM), focusing
across western Oklahoma into western-north Texas. Initial storm
development with this round is underway across portions of the
Panhandles/High Plains, as a weak subtropical impulse intercepts
an effective (outflow) boundary from prior convection further
east. Organized convection is expected, with eventually
propagation towards portions of far western Oklahoma/western-
north Texas.

Severe weather outcomes, focusing on large hail/damaging winds, will
be possible with these storms across far western/southwestern areas
this evening into early portions of the overnight. A majority of
model guidance depicts a pronounced instability gradient extending
across portions of the aforementioned region late this evening
that, combined with increased boundary layer stability, makes
severe concern further east (into south-central Oklahoma) more
uncertain. Will also monitor for localized flooding concern
overnight, especially where heavier totals fell earlier this
morning (leading to lower flash flood guidance magnitudes).

Wednesday: Scattered shower/storm chances to continue, peaking from
morning through early evening. A majority of CAM guidance indicates
potential for a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) to
traverse the forecast area during the day. This will support at
least isolated convective attempts through the day, likely focused
across central/eastern zones. While not forecast to be overly
robust, marginally supportive instability and organizing wind shear
will support low concern for a few strong to perhaps briefly severe
thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon/early evening.
Damaging winds and hail would be the main concerns with any stronger
storm.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The period will be dominated by episodic rounds of
precipitation/storm potential across the region. A generally
weak/nebulous upper air pattern is expected to continue across the
western CONUS from the late week into the weekend. A potentially
more active regime is increasing in signal for Thursday, as a
strong impulse propagates within the subtropical branch of the
jet. This may allow for a more organized round of storms on
Thursday afternoon/evening. At this point, large hail and damaging
wind gusts appear to be the primary storm hazards.

The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend. Despite
signs of the upper pattern transitioning towards western ridging,
enough support exists for storm concern. Ultimately, this may end
up coming in the form of complexes of storms entering the area
from prior convection across the High Plains.

Owing to bouts of precipitation/cloud cover, temperatures in the
extended period are forecast to run below normal for many areas.
Coolest days (with temperatures not making it out of the 70s for
some) look most likely on Thursday and Friday.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Some lingering storms will impact a few sites this afternoon, but
most sites will remain VFR this afternoon and evening before
additional shower and thunderstorms move across the area
overnight into Wednesday morning. Some MVFR conditions will
accompany this activity and may linger through 18z. Gusty
east/southeast winds will diminish some this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  78  64  78 /  30  50  20  50
Hobart OK         63  80  64  79 /  50  40  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  66  82  68  82 /  50  30  30  40
Gage OK           59  79  61  79 /  60  30  50  60
Ponca City OK     62  78  62  79 /  30  40  20  40
Durant OK         66  83  66  81 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...30