232
FXUS63 KPAH 252006
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this afternoon with a Heat Advisory in affect
  for portions of the area that will see heat indices at or
  above 105.

- Isolated storms this afternoon with more scattered activity
  tonight into Wednesday. Storms will be pulsey in nature but
  some could be strong to severe, with mainly a wind threat.

- Hot and humid again on Saturday with heat indices of 105-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Uncertain forecast through the next 12-24 hours. An outflow
boundary from previous convection is moving south into portions
of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana this afternoon. A
few notable updrafts are ongoing as indicated by lightning data
and cooler cloud tops. Although some uncertainty exists about
how far south, continued development along the outflow is
certainly possible this afternoon across the above mentioned
areas. The primary threat will be damaging wind.

Further west, even more uncertainty exists with a weak upper lvl
wave moving across portions of Missouri. The area across SEMO
is unstable to say the least, with MLCAPE values between
3000-3500 J/Kg. The lack of a CU field much of the day is
evidence of a dry airmass in place beneath a h70 ridge. Modest
theta-e advection may be ongoing this afternoon as indicated by
a recent increase in CU development. The overall thinking is
that development across these areas should remain isolated. A
number of CAMS do show development later this afternoon so it
will be something to keep an eye on. Shear will remain weak so
storm organization will be limited to pulse type storms carrying
a damaging wind threat.

The heat and humidity will continue this afternoon. Several
observations are showing heat indices well into the 105-110
degree range. Obviously heat indices will go down with sunset,
but a few lucky folks may see some relief from convective
outflow before then. The heat advisory runs through 01Z.

The rest of tonight should feature a developing MCS well to the
north. Where it goes from there is the big question. CAMs offer
varying solutions overnight but most bring something into the region
tonight or on Wednesday. If any can maintain any organization and
maintenance then they would offer up a damaging wind threat. Overall
though confidence remains low on what this would look like. Height
falls aloft and a better low to mid layer moisture will ultimately
lead to higher PoPs on Wednesday. After Wednesday we see a short
window of northwest flow aloft into Thursday. This will also feature
lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures with highs in the upper
80`s. The ridge across the southern plains moves back into the
region beginning Friday, and continues its grip through the weekend.
The result will be increasing temperatures yet again as highs warm
back into the 90`s for Friday and Saturday. A front is advertised to
move across the region Saturday night into Sunday offering chances
of showers and storms and cooler temperatures on Sunday. Looking
ahead into next week features hot temperatures again with highs in
the lower 90`s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly benign weather across the terminals early this afternoon
with just some cu developing in the better moisture across MO.
Closely watching convection to our north to see how far it will
make it into our region. There is a nice outflow boundary
heading south from that complex of storms, that continues to
trigger new storm development. If any convection reached KMVN or
KEVV, it would be later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move in from the
west and possibly cause some additional convection to develop
near KCGI late this afternoon and into early this evening. The
rest of the area could see possible storms through the evening
as this feature moves east. Then, another round of storms is
likely sometime during the morning hours on Wednesday.
Confidence on the timing of all of this convection is low.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088>090-092>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...CW