Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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884 FXUS63 KPAH 270534 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1234 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A final line of storms is expected to move southeast through the region this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will remain a threat tonight. - The flood threat remains as many areas saw several inches of rainfall. The flood watch is unchanged. - A much needed respite from the active weather pattern is in store for the bulk of next week, as we return to drier weather and near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Visible satellite shows extensive clearing taking place behind a convective complex now moving across central Kentucky. While convective overturning has been evident over the past few hours, surface observations are beginning to show boundary layer recovery taking place. Most, if not all available guidance shows scattered development of showers and storms to the west and northwest this afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to continue to strongly destabilize with CAPE values reaching upwards of 3000+ J/kg. The expectation is that updrafts will be able to take advantage of this instability and could quickly become severe. The thermodynamic and kinematic fields that these storms will be moving into will be more than sufficient for severe weather into the evening hours. All hazards will be possible with these storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible. The main questions surrounding this evening is convective mode, specifically how long discrete convection lasts before becoming linear. A strong tornado threat will especially be associated with any supercell mode, with the primary hazard becoming widespread damaging winds with linear modes. The flood threat will also continue tonight with heavy rainfall rates. Antecedent conditions will be favorable with recent radar estimates of 3-5 inches of rainfall across portions of SE MO and W KY. Any additional heavy rainfall will only aggravate ongoing conditions and could lead to further flash flooding. The flood watch will continue through 12Z Mon. Surface high pressure builds across the region Monday bringing much drier weather to much of the work week. Cooler temperatures and lower relative humidity are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure eventually moves eastward across the Great Lakes with an upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains bringing weak height falls across the area. This will bring a slight increase in PoPs for Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will also increase back to near or above normal with southerly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The last of the rain will exit the region in the next hour or two. A stray lightning strike will be possible at KOWB for the next hour. Otherwise, the main concern is for some LIFR ceilings spreading southeast behind the cold front. It would most likely impact KMVN, but could reach much of the area. It should scatter out or lift by around 15Z. West northwest winds could gust to around 20kts in the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...DRS