Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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785 FXUS63 KPAH 260805 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 305 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are still expected through midnight tonight. The initial round will spread quickly eastward over the southern half of the region after 4 AM. It may be followed by one or two more lines of storms which could impact the entire region through early afternoon. A final line of storms is expected to move southeast through the region this evening. Damaging winds continue to be the main concern. A few tornadoes will be possible along any of the lines of storms, and some large hail cannot be ruled out. - Obviously, with multiple rounds of storms expected in the next 24 hours, a flash flood threat is likely to develop. The Flood Watch is unchanged. - A much needed respite from the active weather pattern is in store for the bulk of next week, as we return to drier weather and near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Well, the convection over the eastern Plains has yet to really congeal into any significant complex. Therefore, confidence in how this will play out is still pretty low. It now appears that the first round of storms will push eastward along the MO/AR line and into southeast Missouri after 09Z. There is a sharp CAPE gradient running roughly along the MS River into the Purchase Area, and the more robust convection early this morning will be confined to Missouri, the Purchase Area and adjacent portions of southern Illinois. It is not certain how quickly the CAPE will spread farther northeast, and any appreciable change may wait until after sunrise. SPC has just issued Tornado Watch 314 valid until 15Z for all of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri and a good portion of west Kentucky. We will be impacted generally over the second half of the Watch period. The latest HRRR actually indicates that there may be new development ahead of the nasty supercell bearing down on Harrison Arkansas, and that this initial round may be more discrete storms. The environment should support supercells with all hazards possible. This will likely impact the southern half of the Watch area. After daybreak, one or more lines of storms could sweep southeast through the area, generally along and south of the CAPE gradient. This could impact the entire watch area. Damaging winds, possibly 75+ mph, will be possible with any lines. A few tornadoes would also be possible along the line. Most of this activity should be east of the area by early to mid-afternoon, and most of the 00Z and later guidance has no trouble reloading the environment during the afternoon. There will be the potential for more supercells to develop on any outflow boundaries that remain over the region through the afternoon. All hazards would once again be possible. However, as we head into the evening, another line of storms is expected to push southeast through the entire region. Once again, widespread very damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible along the line. It looks like everything should be done by 03Z or 04Z this evening. With the multiple rounds of convection expected, the flash flood watch seems like a real good idea. Storm total QPF is 1.5-2.5" over much of the Quad State and some areas are likely to see 3-4" of rainfall. No changes are planned to the Flood Watch which runs through tonight. An upper trough is expected to develop over the Great Lakes Monday, and that will allow surface high pressure to build through the Quad State. The high will keep the region dry and quiet for much of the work week. Very low humidity and temperatures a few degrees below normal are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A skinny upper ridge is expected to push into the region Thursday. The guidance cannot agree on how stout the ridge will be. There is some potential that it could hold fast over the Quad State through next weekend, but some models/ensembles are pushing energy right through it as early as Friday. This leads to some chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast from Friday through next weekend. Temperatures will trend a few degrees above normal by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 High clouds move into the Quad State with light winds at the surface. An area of showers and thunderstorms moves northeastward early morning, with models increasingly agreeing on a line of storms sweeping through from the west mid to late morning. Isolated afternoon convection is possible, with a second line moving through during the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds during the day will be breezy and southerly gusting to 20-25 kts. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in each round of storms. MVFR cigs are likely during the morning and following the evening front. Vsby reductions will accompany storms and heavy rain. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...ATL