Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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691 FXUS63 KPAH 310600 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances begin spreading into SEMO later today and the rest of the area tonight into the weekend as a more unsettled pattern emerges heading into the new week. - One more day today of seasonally cooler temperatures and dew points will subsequently transition to a more summer-like air mass thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 60 degree dew points over central AR work into SEMO this morning, and spread east across the remainder of the FA thru tonight. This occurs in advance of our next storm system, a low pressure wave that opens itself up as it tracks into/across our region Saturday. By then, mid to some upper 60s dew points are entrenched, and it`ll lead to some healthy storms during peak heating with locally heavy rainfall potential. 1 to 2 inch storm average rainfall can be expected with this wave, which yields a MRGNL-SLGT risk on the ERO. That said, we`ll have one more pleasant weather day today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and a mostly dry day before the pops start creeping upward. Dew points largely remain in the 50s east of the MS thru the entirety of the day. A relative lull in pops occurs in the immediate wake of the aforementioned wave`s eastward departure. That`s short-lived, as we transition to a pattern more favorable for unsettled weather. Another wave on Monday offers such, offering a glancing blow as it opens up on its track into/across the TN Valley. Meanwhile, a more robust low pressure storm system tracks to the Great Lakes by mid week. It`ll drag a cold front into and across the Quad State, and offer our next best chance of rain/storms. By then we are in a more summer-like air mass, with dew points around 70 and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Best dynamics still look to stay largely to the north, but a diurnal flare with the front moving in/thru means stronger storms with their requisite potpourri of offerings, including locally heavy rains, remains possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Surface high pressure shifts east today while ridging aloft centers over the terminals thru the first half of the day, before it too slides off to the east. The subsequent veering profile starts to bring some moisture in on the backside return feed from the departing highs, which results in increasing cloud coverage over the latter half of the forecast. Translated rain chances move into SEMO by the end of the day, and spread eastward across the remaining terminals overnight. Clouds lower and thicken as this occurs, with some restrictions coming into play by and esp during the planning phase of the forecast as well as the soon beyond. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$