Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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259 FXUS61 KPHI 081959 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide to the south through tonight. A cold front may bring a few showers on Sunday. Cooler conditions prevail with an occasional shower potential Monday and Tuesday as an upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday and Thursday. Another front may approach towards week`s end. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Breezy but otherwise dry and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon as the area remains largely under the influence of high pressure centered to the south and west. There`s been some scattered to broken diurnal cumulus that has developed over portions of eastern PA into northern NJ with mainly sunny skies farther south. All in all, a very pleasant early June day aside from the breeziness of the wind. The winds will die down early this evening as the pressure gradient weakens and we start to lose the diurnal mixing. By later tonight an approaching shortwave trough will result in increasing mid and high level clouds. While the low levels will remain dry, guidance remains persistent with indications of some showers approaching from the northwest toward daybreak. Any showers overnight will likely remain mostly northwest of I-78 and are not expected to amount to much QPF wise. A light south to southwest wind can be expected overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. Lows in the mid to upper 50s are forecast for northwest of I-78. For Sunday, a weak area of low pressure will pass just to our north, sending a cold front southeastward across the region. Instability is limited and most forcing stays to our north, so right now just have a chance of showers except in the Poconos and northernmost corner of NJ where likely POPs are indicated. Timing also isn`t too great instability wise as the front appears to pass midday/early afternoon, and the boundary appears to become less defined as it does so, hurting convective chances. Clouds will be common, but it shouldn`t be a totally cloudy day, especially by later in the day after frontal passage. Highs mostly 80s I-95 south and east, 70s north and west. Finally, winds will also be a bit gusty at times for Sunday, especially around midday into the early afternoon as the front moves through. Generally expect winds from the WSW ahead of the front shifting to WNW behind the front. Some gusts of 20 to 30 mph or so are likely. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cooler air pushes southeastward on Sunday night behind the front, with some clearing, relatively light winds, and some radiational cooling. Outside of the Delmarva, immediate coast and urban corridor, 50s should be common. Upper low and trough axis remaining overhead Monday with passing weak shortwaves could result in spotty showers. Guidance has trended drier so cutback PoPs to less than 15 percent for most of the region. 15-20 percent PoPs remain for the Poconos and northwest New Jersey where uplift along the terrain may assist in forcing a few showers. Highs near 80 SE, 70s much of the rest of the area, but upper 60s in the Poconos. Lows Monday night look similar to Sunday night with dry conditions expected across the region. Similar story for Tuesday as the forecast looks to be mainly dry across the region as the upper level trough finally looks to push offshore. A few showers cannot be completely ruled out, particularly further south into Delaware where the trough will hang back just a touch longer. PoPs are less than 20 percent regionwide though. Highs Tuesday will be the coolest of the period, with just about the whole CWA no higher than the 70s, with 60s in the Poconos. Lows Tuesday night again diving into the 50s outside of the immediate urban corridor and coastal area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge with surface high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions and warming temperatures enveloping the region. Highs return to the mid 80s for most of the region for Wednesday, with upper 80s to potentially low 90s on Thursday...cooler along the shore and in the Poconos. Lows will return to the 60s for most. By Friday, the next cold front appears to start bearing down on us from the northwest. A few showers are possible for the northwest portion of the region Thursday afternoon. The potential for showers and thunderstorms increases areawide on Friday as southwesterly flow increases. With that increasing flow, Friday looks like the warmest day of the forecast as well, with temps potentially exceeding 90 for much of the area. The front looks to pass by Friday night which would result in a dry and slightly cooler Saturday. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR with scattered clouds. West to northwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts at times. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings after 06Z. Winds becoming generally southwest near 5 kts, increasing toward 12Z. High confidence. Sunday...VFR with a scattered to broken cloud deck around 4-5 k ft. WSW winds around 10 knots shifting to WNW 10 to 15 gusting 20 to 25 knots around midday / early afternoon as a cold front moves through NW to SE. A few showers could also occur as the front moves through but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Sunday night through Thursday...VFR conditions expected to generally prevail. There is a slight chance of showers Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday during daylight hours. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated through Sunday. Westerly to southwest winds near 10-15 kts this afternoon with gusts near 20 kts at times, especially near the coast. Winds shifting south to southwest tonight and then back to west and eventually northwest by late Sunday. Seas around 3 feet. Some showers possible over the waters Sunday afternoon with otherwise fair weather. Outlook... Sunday night through Thursday...Conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Mostly fair weather with just a slight chance of showers Tuesday. Rip Currents... For today, west to west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a medium period of 7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For Sunday, southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a medium period of 6-7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM LONG TERM...AKL/RCM AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons