Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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113 FXUS65 KPUB 231849 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temps today - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Currently... A 2AM, fog/low clouds were developing in the San Luis Valley. Some low clouds were also noted in obs/low cloud sat pix imgy over the Monument area and vcnty KABH. Skies have cleared and radiational cooling was ongoing, and with the moisture we have had, is allowing for fog and low clouds to develop over parts of the region. Most susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is trapped in this region. Other areas it may be more problematic as drainage flow may assist in decreasing the fog potential. Will continue to monitor. Additionally, some low clouds were noted along the CO/KS border areas and CO/NM border regions. Today... After any fog does develop, it should burn off by mid morning over the region, with it lasting maybe a bit longer over the SLV. Otherwise today will be a very nice day over the region with temperatures in the seasonable range. Very little in the way of cloudiness is anticipated most areas. The only chance of an isold shower or -tsra will be over the San Juans. Tonight... CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Can`t rule out some more fog redeveloping in the San Luis valley towards sunrise tomorrow. In addition, a cool front will be coming down the plains and this may keep winds up from a northerly component late tonight, especially north of US-50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 337 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Tuesday.. Models have trended even drier with Tuesday`s post-frontal forecast. Winds look to be light and mainly easterly throughout the day, with enough dry air in place to prevent any impacts from upslope. Relative humidity values look to fall down into the 20% range across the area that afternoon, with no precipitation expected. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and near to just below normal for this time of year. This will mean highs in the 70s across our plains and mountain valleys, with highs in the 50s for our higher terrain locations. Wednesday Onwards.. Our extended forecast will be characterized by above normal temperatures and dry conditions, as a low looks to swing south and sit somewhere over the Arkansas/Texas/eastern Oklahoma region, where it begins to interact with a tropical system later in the period. This setup will keep high pressure in place over Colorado, allowing for strong subsidence and warming for the next several days. Apart from one or two small chances at shortwave energy and potential mountain thunderstorms, precipitation is not expected from Wednesday onwards through the weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 80s every afternoon on the plains under mostly sunny skies. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites this forecast period. A few showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the southwest mountains, however, they will remain over the higher terrain this afternoon. Winds will be diurnally driven this afternoon into the evening time frame, but do expect a wind shift to the north for COS and PUB late this evening as a trough/boundary moves south across the plains. By early Tuesday morning, flow aloft increases and given this trend, anticipate northerly gusts to be in place Tuesday morning through the end of the forecast period. Should see a diminishing trend closer to 18z, but will let later forecasts address the duration of the strongest gusts during the end of the forecast period or the middle part of Tuesday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ