Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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151 FXUS65 KPUB 190922 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 322 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today! - Scattered showers and storms, a few strong along the NM border this afternoon/evening. - Uptick in thunderstorms over the mountains Thursday and Friday with increasing moisture and lift ahead of a passing upper trough. - The heat returns across southern Colorado with highs above the century mark across the Plains by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Currently... A cooler and moister airmass has moved in over the plains this AM. Lots of mid/lower level clouds cover the eastern plains at 3 AM. The front is south of the region attm, and a band of strong storms was noted just south of the fcst area in NM and OK as I write. Over the last hour or so, showers have begun to break out over the plains, with some light steady rain over parts of Baca county. West of the Sangres, it was clear. Some cooler air made it over into the San Luis Valley (SLV) earlier as they had some gusty east winds in the valley early this evening. Today... Sharply cooler today. Max temps only expected to be in the 60s across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region with 70s over the rest of the plains! These temps are 15 to 20F below normal for this time of the year. In the interior, however, temps will remain warm with temps similar to yesterday. As for precip, the overall best chance of showers and storms today will be later this afternoon with storms developing over the southern Sangres and then pushing east late today. Over the rest of the plains, we will see mainly mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a few -TSRAs. The east slopes of the mtns and wet mtn valley will likely see some instability today and expect scattered storms this area during the afternoon. Given the boundary is just south of the area, the best qpf will be noted along the CO/NM border generally east of the S Sangres. One region which will see less precip today will be the CONTDVD region as much drier air is noted over this area. Tonight... We will likely see a good chance of scattered showers and storm push east off the mtns and across the plains this evening into the nighttime hours, with the brunt of the activity ending by midnight. Given the general lack of instability, storms are not expected to be too strong. The only exception to this will be down along the NM and OK border where better instability will be realized early in the period and a few strong/marginally severe storms will be possible. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Thursday-Friday...Modest south to southwest flow aloft is progged across the region through the end of the work week, as a broad upper trough across the West Coast on Thursday, translates across the Rockies through Friday night. Flow aloft allows for an influx of subtropical moisture to spread into the region, leading to an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially along and west of the Continental Divide, where the best moisture is expected to be in place. Increasing uvv ahead of the passing trough, combined with good orographic flow, could keep showers and storms ongoing over the ContDvd Thursday night, with the best coverage of storms expected over and near the higher terrain once again through the day Friday into Friday night. Latest models continue to suggest enough cape and shear, especially west of the Front Range, to support a few stronger storms producing hail to near an inch in diameter and gusty outflow winds, along with enough subtropical moisture to support locally heavy rainfall, with the latest Day 2 and Day 3 WPC Excessive rainfall outlooks indicating a marginal risk across western Colorado on Thursday, with the marginal risk spreading into south central Colorado on Friday. Temperatures across southeast Colorado are expected to warm back to at and slightly above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the work week, with temperatures over and near the higher terrain at to slightly cooler than seasonal, with expected increased convection. Saturday-Sunday...Warmer and drier west to northwest flow is expected across the region through the weekend, with upper level ridging building back across the southern Rockies. This will allow for temperatures to warm to above seasonal levels areawide, with enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. Monday-Tuesday...Southern Rockies upper level ridging builds into the Central Rockies with warming aloft and H5 heights approaching 595DM leading to highs returning to well above seasonal levels in the mid 90s to around 105F across the southeast Plains, and mainly in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. There could be enough moisture to support isolated higher based afternoon showers, mainly over the higher terrain, into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain relatively light overnight, and then start to increase during the early afternoon. Mid level clouds will start to increase during the day Wednesday, with scattered showers developing within the San Luis Valley tomorrow afternoon. Confidence does remain low though on ultimate timing and coverage of showers around the TAF site, with VCSH conditions possibly lasting all Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation cells. KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected extremely early for this TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing quickly overnight and persisting through most of this TAF period, primarily due to low clouds. Low to mid level clouds will rapidly develop overnight as moist upslope flow materializes and persist through this TAF period, keeping the low to mid level clouds in place through the end of this TAF period, though some minor lifting of clouds is anticipated during Wednesday afternoon. Scattered pockets of drizzle to light rain are also expected to develop overnight around the TAF sites, with a period of steady drizzle/light rain likely during the mid overnight hours into the mid to late morning hours. Thereafter, scattered rain showers are anticipated throughout the day Wednesday, though confidence is low in ultimate timing and coverage of showers, with VCSH conditions possibly persisting all Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that said though, any showers will be relatively light, though will be capable of briefly reducing visibility - some lightning can not be ruled out with any stronger precipitation cells. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light during this TAF period, with occasional sporadic gusts during the afternoon hours Wednesday, especially for KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH