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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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991 FXUS65 KPUB 230528 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1128 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures heat up through next week with readings 100-105 degrees across the portions of southeast plains with hottest days Monday and Tuesday. - At least isolated thunderstorms possible each day, mainly over the mountains - Another uptick in thunderstorms possible late week with another influx of subtropical moisture and potential cold front next Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Clouds have hung in across the San Luis Valley today which has slowed afternoon heating. Dew points are still in the mid 50s as of 20z with temperatures in the low 70s. Elsewhere temperatures have warmed into the 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations under persistent mid/high cloud cover. Afternoon heating and a weak disturbance moving through westerly flow aloft into northwest CO has triggered isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mountains, with best coverage along the Continental Divide. SPC mesoanalysis shows some stout SBCAPE across the San Luis Valley (up to 2000 J/kg) but MLCAPE is considerably less (under 1000 J/kg). Even out west, dew points have maintained in the 40s across the Eastern San Juan and La Garita mountains while falling into the 20s and 30s farther north across Lake and Chaffee Counties under the drier airmass. With deep layer shears running around 30-40 kts, still think there is a window for an isolated strong storm across the southwest mountains and San Luis Valley if sufficient instability can be realized. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, small hail and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary storm risks through early evening. Most showers and thunderstorms will hug the higher terrain, but some CAMS models do push a couple storms into the I-25 corridor this evening. Dew points are quite a bit lower east of the mountains with inverted V soundings indicating more of a gusty erratic wind risk for the I-25 corridor. Again, cells should be isolated with best chances south of highway 50. Convection will die off with loss of heating this evening with a warm night under some residual high cloud cover expected. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as the upper ridge builds over the region. Shallow mid/high level moisture may be enough for some isolated high based thunderstorms over the mountains and along the surface trough axis across the far southeast plains. Gusty erratic winds up to 45 mph will be the primary storm risk. -KT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Main story for the long term will be the building heat over the region through the early part of the week as the upper high over the southwest and south central U.S. remains firmly in place and builds northward again into Tuesday. Temperatures both days will reach the 100-105 degree range across the lower elevations of the southeast plains and we could be flirting with Heat Advisories once again for portions of the I-25 corridor and lower Arkansas region. Elsewhere, temperatures in the valleys will climb well into the 80s with 60s and 70s for the higher elevations. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as pulses of modest mid/high level moisture rotate through the upper high. But thunderstorms continued inverted V soundings suggest gusty winds and lightning will be the primary risks with only spotty light rainfall possible. Moisture increases from Wednesday through Friday as another influx of subtropical moisture works its way northward with the upper high. This will bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms to the region with better chances for some measurable rainfall amounts. Increasing afternoon cloud cover should shave a couple degrees off high temperatures but readings will still be around 100 for portions of the lower Arkansas River valley. The next meaningful front comes in late Friday across the plains behind a trough passage to the north, which may bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region for the following weekend along with better chances for showers and thunderstorms. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Some showers may linger in the vicinity of KPUB for a few hours tonight, but no direct impacts to the terminal are expected. Some guidance shows brief fog at KALS overnight tonight, but current forecast guidance is too low to include in this round of TAFs, will monitor for changes. Otherwise, generally diurnal patterns expected the rest of this forecast period. Some showers will form over the mountains tomorrow afternoon, which could locally increase cloud cover close to the 21-00Z timeframe. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH