Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
434 FXUS65 KREV 092021 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 121 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon for areas south of US-50 and near the Oregon border. Otherwise, after a respite from near-record temperatures this weekend, a gradual heating trend returns through mid-week, allowing temperatures to reach record territory once again. A cooling trend with increased winds looks likely into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Current infrared satellite imagery reveals cumulus buildups initiating off the higher terrain in Mono and Mineral counties, as well as the Lassen County convergence zone into far northern Washoe County. These areas will see the highest chances (20-40%) for another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Any storms that develop will stay sub-severe with main threats being brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, in any stronger cells, DCAPE values between 800-1000 J/kg across the area are supportive of gusty outflow winds to 40-45 mph and steep mid-level lapse rates may allow for some small hail. Elsewhere, expect continued above-average temperatures and typical afternoon breezes with clearing skies through the evening. A trough digging into the western US today squeezes off into a closed low off the coast of southern California on Monday, with upper-level ridging filling back in overhead. This pattern will allow for another gradual warming trend, with temperatures near to potentially above record values Tuesday-Thursday. Wednesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week, with current blended guidance indicating a 40% chance to reach or exceed 100 degrees at the Reno Airport. That said, HeatRisk will be at moderate for nearly the entire region during this time frame, with a few isolated areas of major possible into the interior Basin & Range. Best to avoid outdoor activities during this time, but if your plans take you outdoors, make sure you stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and wear light clothing in order to avoid heat related illnesses. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a trough entering the western US on Friday and deepening over our region through the weekend into early next week. As such, expect a gradual cooling trend from Friday onward, with increased winds Friday and Saturday as this system moves into the region. Whitlam && .AVIATION... * Mostly clear skies are expected through the remainder of the day, except for cumulus buildups along the high terrain in Mono County, the Basin & Range, and Lassen into northern Washoe Counties. These aforementioned areas will also see a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms between 22-06z. Main threats include brief heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic outflow winds to 35 kts, small hail, and lightning. * Typical afternoon westerly winds prevail for all regional terminals today, with gusts generally between 15-25 kts. * Density altitude concerns continue today through the remainder of the work week as temperatures remain well above average. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$