732
FXUS63 KSGF 210540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot again for most of the Ozarks Saturday. Heat Index values
  will reach the 95 to 102F range mainly along and west of
  Highway 65.

- 10-30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms through
  this evening mainly along and south of I-44. If storms
  develop, some may produce wind gusts up to 40-60 mph.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
  weekend (30-80% chance). Precipitation amounts will be highly
  variable across the region, but generally expect the highest
  amounts to be north of I-44.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures next week with
  highs in the 70s and limited rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A cold front will be making slow progress to the south towards
the Ozarks through tonight before stalling. In advance of the
front, temperatures will soar into the middle to upper 90s for
ares west of Highway 65 and into the lower to middle 90s to the
east. With Td`s in the upper 60s to around 70, the heat index
will make it feel like 95 to 105*F. This unseasonably warm
airmass will bring the potential of near record his for some
locations this afternoon and record high overnight low
temperatures for some tonight.

With the moisture in place across the region and plenty of heat
induced instability, from 2500-4500 j/kg across the Ozarks,
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon
south of the front with the best potential closer in proximity
to the Arkansas State line. Organization of the convection is
expected to be limited, but with the amounts of stability in
place, a few storms may become strong enough to produce
downburst winds from 40-60mph especially with inverted-V low-
level profiles via models, if they can overcome a rather dry
layer aloft over the region note on the 12z SGF sounding.

With the setting sun the region will see a lull in the rain
chances. However, lingering instability and an approaching
trough, ejecting from the desert southwest, will push the
lingering front north as a warm front. A storm complex is than
expected to develop, taking advantage of strong warm air and
moisture advection coincident with strong positive vorticity
advection. This will allow for more widespread rain and storms
to the region spread over the region likely after midnight
tonight. The best potential remains along and north of I-44
however based on the expected area of development and track of
the system.  Severe weather is not expected with this round.
Widespread and more prolonged rain is more likely.

Temperatures will lingering in the upper 60s (east) to middle
70s (west) providing little relief overnight.

See Climate Section below for potential High Minimum overnight
temperatures impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and storms this weekend (30-80%):

Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected through the day
Saturday and into Sunday as the upper level system lifts out
of the southwest into the central plains. The expanse of
rainfall over the weekend may be impacted by lingering outflow
from tonight`s convection. Despite this caveat, multiple rounds
of widespread showers and thunderstorms remain expected
Saturday through Monday night as a widespread area of large-
scale forcing moves across the plains and the Ozarks through the
period. Severe weather is not expected Saturday and Saturday
night while rain chances are from 30 to 70%.

Heading into Sunday and Sunday night, the upper short wave will
make its way to the east across the plains providing ample lift
and forcing for showers and storms. The best potential (50-80%)
will be across the northern portions of the Ozarks, I-44 and
north, however areas south will have a good chance (30-50%) of
seeing rain as well. The upper level system will drag a cold
front through the Ozarks which will aid in lift. There will be
at least the potential for some strong to severe storms with
this activity with mainly a damaging wind threat. The limiting
factor will be instability as cloudy skies will limit heating.

Areas north of I-44 have the greatest chance of receiving at
least an inch of rain over the length of the weekend (50-70%).
A limiting factor to any flood potential will be the ongoing
dry conditions and potential rainfall rates. If storms can
produce rain rates in excess of an inch per hour (limited
chance) of storms train over the same locations through the
day, some localized flooding may be possible. The flooding
threat will continue to be monitored and evaluated in the coming
days.

The pattern looks as though it will shift, bringing more fall
like weather to the region for Tuesday through the end of next
week. Additional (low confidence) rain chances exist from
Tuesday night into Wednesday, though synoptic models have vastly
differing solutions on the evolution of the weather patterns
for the coming period. For the most part, conditions next week
look cooler and mostly dry with seasonably warm highs in the
upper 60 to 70s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A weakening thunderstorm complex is currently entering west
Missouri. An associated outflow boundary will impact SGF and
JLN, shifting S`ly winds to N`ly for the 06-09Z timeframe.
Decaying thunderstorms will be in the vicinity, with a 40%
chance for associated precipitation to impact JLN between
08-10Z. At the moment, rain is expected to stay away from SGF,
but lightning could be in the vicinity.

Later in the period, redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
is expected across southwest Missouri, with the threat
lingering most of the period. Confidence is low on the best
location and timing of thunderstorms, but chances are at least a
few cells will be in the vicinity of the TAF sites at times through
02Z.

Otherwise, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will be prevalent today,
with background winds at 5-10 kts out of the south, unless
affected by thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2024


Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 21:
99 (2022) Forecast: 98


Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 21:
73 (1931) Forecast: 72

September 22:
70 (2017) Forecast: 70


Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Joplin):

September 21:
76 (1980) Forecast: 75


Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September:

Springfield: 0.05" (1928)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04"

Joplin: 0.2" (2013)
September 2024 Thusfar: T"

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price