647
FXUS64 KSJT 311724
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1224 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the
area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed
below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of
this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do
show more convection developing before sunrise across the South
Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start
the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the
area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as
widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry
POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely".

As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance
for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat.
Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover,
and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry
a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although
focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where
the CAMs are a little more aggressive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West
Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak
ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable
airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing
this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past
week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through
Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and
begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit
high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen
across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper
90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Expect VFR conditions this afternoon and much of tonight. Expect
stratus to return to much of the area Saturday and have MVFR
ceilings at most of the terminals, besides KABI. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight mainly
south of the I-20 corridor. A few storms may be severe. Confidence
is to low to add thunder to the terminals and will watch radar
trends for possible amendments.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     81  66  86  70 /  50  10  20  30
San Angelo  87  69  92  70 /  30  10  20  30
Junction    91  71  95  73 /  30  10  10  20
Brownwood   81  67  85  70 /  50  20  20  20
Sweetwater  82  67  87  69 /  60  10  30  30
Ozona       90  70  92  70 /  20  10  20  30
Brady       82  69  86  71 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21