461
FXUS64 KSJT 161911
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

No significant changes from the previous forecast. The upper
level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday,
keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. The
HRRR and NAMNest do show an isolated shower or two this
evening and tomorrow afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry as
the coverage is expected to be so sparse that it doesn`t need
mentioning. Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday generally in the mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...Warmer than normal temperatures through at least Saturday...
...Weak cold front arrives Sunday with a chance for showers and
storms...

In general, an upper level trough will remain just far enough off
to the west through Saturday to keep an upper level ridge in
place across West Central Texas. This means above normal
temperatures with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s across the
area. Some of the models do indicate a weak shortwave making a
little closer approach by Wednesday afternoon to produce a few
showers and storms across portions of the South Plains and Red
River Valley. Models have this dissipating north of the area, but
given how slowly the convection dissipated on Sunday evening,
expect the convection Wednesday to linger a little longer as well
and perhaps reach into portions of the northwest Big Country by
Wednesday evening.

Otherwise, main weather story will come with the arrival of a weak
cold front for Sunday and Monday, bringing a chance of at least
isolated showers and storms and a little cooler temperatures.
Nothing looks terribly drastic at this point but some highs down
in the upper 80s looks possible, and will continue the mention of
20% to 30% POPs at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites.
South to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    68  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       68  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       69  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20