304
FXUS64 KSJT 091911
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

As of 2PM, we are already seeing an area of agitated cumulus across
the Concho Valley and the NW Hill Country with a few weak attempts
at convective initiation. This is a bit earlier and further
south/east than hi-resolution guidance was indicating but with a
weak area of deep moisture convergence in this area based on latest
mesoanalysis and temperatures in the mid 90s approaching the ConvT
in the area, these attempts make sense. With only modest instability
across the area and weak shear in the lowest 6 km, this activity
will likely be very pulsey in nature and will likely not pose much
of a severe threat. These storms could produce some heavy downpours
(thanks to areal PWat values in the 1-1.5 inch range) and be slow
moving with weak steering flow. Some isolated instances of hail with
these storms will be possible. The main area of storm development is
expected to occur west of our CWA, closer to the surface low in
eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin later this afternoon and
evening. Again, with weak shear, these storms are expected to grow
upscale into a complex of storms and move east/southeast into our
area overnight. There has been a noted lack of run-to-run
consistency in hi-res guidance as to how well this complex remains
organized as it moves east. Because of this, have capped PoPs in the
chance category for the overnight hours. A cold front will make
progress through the area tonight which will help to knock low
temperatures down a few degrees from where they have been the past
few days into the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers and storms
will continue through tomorrow with a largely uncapped atmosphere
and weak flow aloft. There may be a slight increase in upper level
support with increased northwest mid-level flow on the backside of
the upper low in eastern New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon which
could enhance development. Have broad-brushed PoPs for tomorrow
based on uncertainty in location and coverage. It will likely not
be raining everywhere the entire day but further refinements will
need to be made with the next forecast package. With the chances
for rain and cloud cover expected, temperatures will be much
cooler in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will carry-over into Monday and
Tuesday this week as an upper-level shortwave trough tracks across
West Central Texas through Tuesday evening. This additional
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for some cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures
reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s as well. A warming trend
will begin mid-week as ridging aloft begins to build back over
the area, bringing warmer and drier conditions back to the area
through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High
temperatures by the end of the week will be back in the mid 90s to
around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Isolated storms
may develop across our western counties late this afternoon but
coverage is expected to remain low and uncertainty in the location
of development precludes a prevailing group so have gone with VCTS
groupings for KSJT and KSOA. The better chances for showers and
storms will be overnight from a complex expected to develop over
eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin before moving east. Have
included PROB30 groups for KSJT and KSOA based on latest hi-res
guidance as confidence in how well this complex holds together has
varied from run to run. This is also the reasoning for leaving
VCTS/SH for the terminals further east. MVFR stratus is expected
to drop south and impact the KABI terminal late overnight and
through the morning hours tomorrow but progress of this cloud deck
should stall before reaching KSJT and KBBD. Winds will shift to a
more easterly direction this afternoon before shifting to a more
northerly direction late overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  85  68  88 /  50  40  20  30
San Angelo  70  90  69  94 /  50  40  20  20
Junction    70  90  71  94 /  30  40  20  10
Brownwood   71  86  68  88 /  30  40  20  20
Sweetwater  70  85  68  89 /  60  40  20  30
Ozona       68  89  68  94 /  30  30  20  10
Brady       70  87  70  89 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50