784
FXUS64 KSJT 060726
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early this morning, skies were mostly clear across west central
Texas with temperatures in the mid 70s.  At the upper levels, a 590
dam height ridge that got established on Wednesday should drift
eastward and become centered over west Texas today.  At the surface,
a frontal boundary was stalled out near the I-10 corridor. This
frontal boundary will push back northward today, allowing southerly
surface flow to bring warmer conditions back into the Big Country.
High temperatures around the area look to reach the upper 90s to low
100s this afternoon.  The 00Z model runs show a weakness developing
on the northeast side of the upper-level ridge this evening, thanks
to a shortwave impulse in the northwest flow aloft over the central
High Plains.  Between this feature and a southward-moving cold
front, storms should fire over western Oklahoma and the Panhandle by
this evening and persist into the overnight hours. Most of the
activity should remain closer to Lubbock, but some slight chance
PoPs were included for some counties this evening north of I-20 in
case of additional development. The strong upper-level ridge
should otherwise suppress convection for areas further south this
afternoon and evening, thanks to 700mb temperatures of 13-14
degrees C.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Hot and Dry through Saturday, then Becoming Unsettled Next
Week...

Strong upper level high pressure will settle over Texas Friday
into Saturday. This will result in hot and dry weather both days,
with afternoon highs in the upper 90s and low 100s and overnight
lows in the 70s.

As we head into next week, models continue to show the ridge
weakening and eventually shifting westward across Mexico and
into the southwest states by mid to late week. Still looks like a
surface cold front will push southward Sunday night into Monday.
Rain chances will increase ,with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will also be
considerably cooler through mid week, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Northwest flow aloft
will prevail across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, which may
result in some showers and storms affecting mainly the Big
Country. Will maintain low POPs across this area for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions with southeast winds this morning will turn
southerly by midday. Some locations will see winds increase to 10
KT with gusts near 20 at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  73 100  76 /   0  10   0   0
San Angelo 103  75 103  74 /  10   0   0   0
Junction   102  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  75 101  76 /   0  10   0   0
Ozona       99  74 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       96  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK