Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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203 FXUS64 KSJT 180804 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 304 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Isolated thunderstorms have developed across northern Kerr and northern Edwards County. These storms have are drifting northeast and are moving into southeast Kimble County. This activity may move into portions of Mason County over the next hour or so, so have expanded slight chance PoPs northward slightly. These storms will have the potential of producing hail and gusty winds, with some of this activity approaching severe criteria. Most of this activity should begin to weaken shortly after sunset. Daniels && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. We could see a few isolated storms late this afternoon and evening as the upper level short wave moves east over our area. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be in our southern counties, near I-10, with a smaller chance of storms further north. It is May in Texas, so we can`t completely rule out severe thunderstorms, but the chance for severe weather is lower today compared to yesterday, and most of the activity (if any develops) is expected to remain below severe thresholds. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Highs will be almost 10 degrees above normal, with values approaching 100 in some areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 We will get a taste of summer heat from Sunday through Tuesday in west central Texas. An upper level ridge will establish itself over the area by Sunday. And although the ridge will break down by Tuesday as a large trough develops over the western CONUS, and moves toward the central U. S., the low level thermal ridge will remain strong through Tuesday. The dryline will also move east through much of the area Tuesday afternoon aiding in heating via westerly downslope drying/heating. Highs from Sunday through Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move into the area. This will provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as well as some relief from the hot temperatures. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should cool off into the 80s to mid 90s for the most part. Temperatures will warm back up for Friday, although we won`t be as hot as earlier in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours. Expect light winds throughout the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 100 70 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 100 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 92 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 97 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 97 70 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...41