834
FXUS64 KSJT 251816
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central
and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening...

An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states
will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving
across the Plains states during peak heating. A dryline will extend
south from far western portions of Oklahoma, into far western
portions of our forecast area by this afternoon. Rich boundary layer
moisture will reside east of the dryline, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Temperatures will climb well into the
90s across the Big Country and between 100 and 102 degrees farther
south. This will result in a very unstable airmass across the area,
with SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/kg, along with deep layer shear between 45
and 55 kts. The greatest severe weather potential today will be
north of our area in Oklahoma and Kansas, where the best upper level
support (short wave disturbances) is expected.

Farther south across West Central Texas, convective initiation
should be more isolated, with the most favored area for
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Big Country and
northern Heartland, where an enhanced risk of severe storms exists.
A large moderate risk of severe storms will exist across western/
central Oklahoma into Kansas where a tornado outbreak is possible.
Despite limited upper level support farther south, convective
inhibition will be weak by peak heating and any storms that develop
should rapidly become severe. All modes of severe weather will be
possible today, including very large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes, some of which may be strong. With that said, latest CAM`s
show only isolated supercells developing across the Big Country
after 4PM, so POPs were capped at 30 percent across eastern portions
of the Big Country, with 20 POPs extending south into the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Any storms that do develop should be east of
the area by mid evening, with dry weather expected for the rest of
the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

....Unsettled Pattern to Return Next Week...

Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level
ridge persists over northern Mexico. Numerical guidance suggests
yet another day of triple-digit heat with low overall rain
chances.

Starting Tuesday, the pattern looks to become unsettled again as an
upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern US and puts
the southern Plains into northwest flow.  Models show multiple
shortwave impulses aloft riding over the north edge of the weakening
ridge through Friday.  Warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s will
be expected each afternoon with plenty of Gulf moisture in place due
to southeast surface flow.  A cold front should also dip into west
central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop along both the front and the
dryline late Tuesday with lingering convection possible Wednesday.
The front should lift back northward on Thursday and provide even
more chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
Conditions through the entire week are likely to be warm and muggy.
However, local conditions may be impacted at times by cloud cover
and cold pools left from earlier convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Expect isolated thunderstorms across much of the area mainly
between 21Z and 04Z. A few storms may still linger until 07Z
indicated by a few Hi Res models. Some storms may be severe. For
now, will keep the VCTS at the KABI terminal for a few hours and
will watch radar trends for possible amendments at the remaining
terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and gusty south winds
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  97  66  97 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  99  63 102 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    75 104  66 106 /  10   0   0  10
Brownwood   71  96  64  95 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  97  66  97 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       72  98  65 102 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       72  96  65  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21