078
FXUS62 KTAE 260834
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

A late season cold front will limp across Alabama and Georgia on
Monday afternoon and evening, supporting a round of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms, especially over Alabama, Georgia,
and the inland Florida Panhandle. Following the front on Tuesday,
a drier air mass will prevail for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Low-level southwest flow off the Gulf today will keep the
seasonably muggy air mass in place. Meanwhile, upper ridging from
the southwest will strengthen today. 500 mb heights near 5900
meters are possible in our FL counties. This will shut down
convective development today. So this will mean a hot and dry
afternoon ahead, and then a warm night ahead, especially at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

The tail end of the low-amplitude upper trough axis currently
over the Southern Rockies will brush across the Southeast States
late Monday. In response, a late season cold front will limp south
through Alabama and Georgia. The air mass to its south will be
characterized by moderate to strong convective instability, with
the strongest instability over our AL/GA counties, where upper
heights will fall the most. Precipitable Water (PW) values will
also peak in the 1.6-1.9 inch range, which typically favors deep,
moist convection. The incoming front will provide focus for
thunderstorm development, along with iterative generations of
southeast-propagating thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Westerly
500 mb flow of 30-40 knots will favor convective organization, at
least into multi-cell clusters and possibly more. Isolated
damaging wind gusts will be the main convective mode of concern.
Indeed, SPC has upgraded the new Day 2 outlook to include a Slight
Risk (Level 2 of 5) for our northernmost counties... along and
north of an Enterprise AL to Albany GA line. As thunderstorms
continue southeast into the FL Big Bend on Monday evening, the
loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition to
the southeast will help storms weaken quickly after sunset.

Behind the front on Tuesday, 1000-700 mb layer mean flow will
become northwesterly. A drier air mass will trickle in. PW values
will be drying out below the 1.5 inch value that serves as a loose
threshold for deep, moist convection, and surface dewpoints will
fall through the less convectively favorable and more comfortable
60s along and north of I-10. We could still eek out an isolated
seabreeze storm from the Forgotten Coast over to the Nature Coast,
but that would be about it.

Of course, late season cold fronts do not really bring cooler air.
Any improvement to human comfort is mainly due to drying and less
mugginess, and the ensuing improvement in heat index.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Northwest flow aloft will prevail for the 2nd half of the week,
though it will weaken late in the week as broad upper ridging
slowly builds in from the southwest. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
coastal Carolinas. This will bring drying north and northeast
breezes at the surface, which will gradually clock around
easterly and southeasterly. These things favor a mostly dry
forecast. Though daytime highs of 85-92 will be common, the drier
air mass will allow late nights to cool into the 60s, except at
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Low-level southwest flow will prevail for the next 24 hours, and
upper ridging will strengthen over the region. This will maintain
a moist low- level air mass, while suppressing any attempt at
convection today. At 0730z, satellite imagery and surface obs
showed low stratus and mist developing and expanding, especially
along and west of the Flint Valley, including near ABY, DHN, and
ECP. Expansion will continue through sunrise, with bases and
visibility both lowering. So a few hours of IFR ceilings and at
least some mist are expected at all terminals by sunrise.

In typical fashion, conditions will improve rapidly starting about
2 hours after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus will prevail in the
afternoon, with bases in the 035-050 range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will prevail through Monday,
in advance of a late season cold front that will slowly pass the
waters on Monday night. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will
follow the front on Tuesday, followed by a northwest turn on
Tuesday night. High pressure will pass by well north of the waters
from Wednesday through Friday, causing winds to gradually clock
around from northerly to easterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Low-level southwest flow will prevail through Monday morning, and
upper ridging will strengthen over the region. This will maintain
a moist low- level air mass, while suppressing any attempt at
convection today. On Monday afternoon, a late season cold front
will make headway through Alabama and Georgia, supporting a round
of strong afternoon thunderstorms with gusty and erratic winds. A
turn to prevailing westerly breezes will follow on Tuesday, and a
somewhat drier air mass will trickle in.

As we approach the peak sun angles and length of daylight for the
year, deep mixing is common in the afternoon. This will support
pockets of high dispersion over inland districts each afternoon.

Patchy fog is expected over many districts around sunrise this
morning, and again on Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Flood waters from heavy rainfall back on May 17 and 18 are now
routing into the slow-responding Suwannee River, which will see
rises in the days ahead. All other rivers continue to fall.

Strong thunderstorms are expected on Monday afternoon, mainly over
our Alabama and Georgia basins. Most places will not experience
hydrologically significant rainfall, but isolated rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are possible. This could bring localized short-
duration runoff issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  71  93  72 /   0   0  20  20
Panama City   86  76  87  75 /   0  10  20  20
Dothan        92  72  90  71 /   0  10  40  20
Albany        93  71  90  70 /  10   0  40  30
Valdosta      94  70  93  72 /  10   0  20  30
Cross City    91  68  90  72 /  10   0   0  20
Apalachicola  85  75  85  75 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner