Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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369 FXUS62 KTAE 130542 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 142 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The forecast is currently on track, updates don`t appear necessary this evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Temperatures will continue to remain above normal with lows in the lower to middle 70s tonight and highs in the middle 90s Thursday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. Locally heavy rain is a concern within any of the showers/storms due to high precipitable water values (PWATs); gusty winds are also possible within any of the stronger storms along with an outside chance at some hail. Looking aloft, the mid-level water vapor imagery on GOES-16 shows a weak H5 shortwave trudging through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. That will be near, if not over, the region Thursday afternoon and help instigate isolated to scattered showers and storms. Gusty winds are possible within the stronger storms due to DCAPE values between 700 to 900 J/kg. Hail could also be possible due to mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km along with the freezing levels forecast to drop below 15k feet Thursday afternoon. As mentioned above, there is the potential for locally heavy rain within any of the showers or storms. That is due to PWATs generally between 1.7" to nearly 2", which would be above the 75th percentile for mid-June. Also, steering flow is very weak, if not non-existent, the next couple of afternoons. This means any showers and storms will flare up and rain themselves out in nearly the same place, similar to what happened Tuesday afternoon. If any one of the showers or storms develop over more urban areas, it could lead to localized street flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The combination of a lingering SW-NE trough axis slowly exiting the Eastern Seaboard and slugs of Gulf tropical moisture focuses our highest rain chances (40-60%) in the Big Bend seabreeze zone Friday afternoon to offshore heading into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout mid-level ridge builds from the west and set the stage for a very hot next 3 days. Widespread inland highs in the upper 90s are forecast with a few locations possibly hitting 100 degrees! Peak heat indices look to range from about 101-105. Although those values are below local advisory criteria, these hot conditions can still be impactful to sensitive populations or those who are outdoors, so please plan accordingly. Overnight low 70s for minimum temperatures won`t provide much relief either. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Hazardous heat will be the main story this weekend as the aforementioned ridge overtakes the Eastern US. Global models depict mid-level heights of 591 dm, which exceeds the daily 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology for KTLH. For Saturday, we are forecasting 100 degrees for Dothan/Albany/Valdosta with 101 at Tallahassee. Ironically enough, these values are a few degrees less than the daily record highs for June 15th from the brutal 2011 period. Toss in some humidity and we are looking at heat indices ranging from about 103-110, which brings Heat Advisory potential into play, especially over parts of our FL counties. Sunday appears slightly less hot as the ridge pivots NE with forecast highs in the mid/upper 90s, but solid triple-digit heat indices are still expected. Better moisture off the Gulf and Atlantic also should provide some relief via cloud cover/increased rain chances in response to a developing easterly flow regime. By Monday, easterly flow becomes more brisk when a pressure gradient tightens between the Bermuda High and a potentially developing tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern yields daily chances for showers/thunderstorms driven by a robust seabreeze activity. The trade off is relatively cooler temperatures close to the low/mid 90s for highs, though lows remain in the sultry low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The VLD forecast of reduced cigs/vsbys around sunrise is based largely on persistence, or what happened there on Wed morning, though the 05z dewpoint depression was 2 degrees greater than at the same time 24 hours earlier. Low-mid level flow will come in from the northeast on Thursday, providing a little dry air advection. This will stunt convective development, except in the most favored seabreeze focus areas over the FL Panhandle. With the general northeast wind, the seabreeze will be pinned pretty close to the coast, so the mention of thunder is confined to the ECP TAF during the most favored late afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of maritime convection with dominant wave periods of 6 to 7 seconds. By Monday, exercise caution easterly flow develops and likely increases to or near advisory levels later next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Warm to hot temperatures continue through the weekend and into next week. Relative humidity values will generally range between 35 to 45 percent each afternoon. A slight increase in transport winds across southwest Georgia will lead to higher dispersion across the Georgia districts Thursday and Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible the next couple of days with gusty and erratic wind near storms. While widespread fog is not anticipated, there is the potential for patchy fog the next couple of mornings, especially across the southeast Florida Big Bend and areas along I-75 in Georgia. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several days. Heavy downpours from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms could cause some localized runoff issues, particularly for urban, low-lying, or poor-drainage areas. In terms of rivers, Rock Bluff/Wilcox/Manatee Springs from the Suwannee basins are nearly below action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 97 74 / 30 10 20 0 Panama City 91 75 94 77 / 60 10 20 0 Dothan 93 73 97 74 / 20 0 10 0 Albany 93 70 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 Valdosta 93 70 97 73 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 96 72 96 73 / 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 87 76 89 78 / 40 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Haner MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...IG3