186
FXUS62 KTBW 201253
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

What`s left of the cool front was drifting south into central
Florida early this morning with some cumulus clouds along and
ahead of it. Low stratus has moved southwest into the northern
Nature Coast behind the boundary, but this should lift and
dissipate in the next few hours. For the rest of the day west to
northwest low level flow will increase across most of the region,
with the exception being across the northern Nature Coast where a
more north to northeast flow will persist. There could be enough
moisture for a few showers this afternoon along this wind shift
across the Nature Coast, and further south over the interior,
otherwise mostly sunny skies are anticipated. Overall forecast
looks on track with no updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR expected through period with increasing west to northwest
winds up to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon.
Winds shift to northeast during this evening and then diminish
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited
rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with
lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms
during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a
weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a
trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic.

Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today
with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to
favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the
1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early
Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the
interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the
Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will
begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds
overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the
state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with
highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading
further across W FL.

By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from
the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to
mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence
limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or
less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and
attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN
Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging
aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in
response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into
the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in
rain chances over the weekend into early next week.

Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early
part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter
half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast
today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then
warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from
the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds
today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon
with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E
Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE
to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the
sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late
evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late
week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with
winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state
Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into
the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the
SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the
afternoons with the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  91  75 /  10  10  20   0
FMY  91  72  92  73 /  20  20  30  10
GIF  91  70  90  71 /  30  10  40   0
SRQ  90  71  92  73 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  91  65  91  66 /  20  10  20   0
SPG  88  76  90  77 /  10  10  20   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Anderson