Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
176 FXUS62 KTBW 061354 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 954 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Latest surface observations and KTBW VAD wind profile show low level flow has become more southwesterly as Bermuda high pressure continues to shift further out into the Atlantic and its associated ridge axis shifts southward. Winds will continue to shift further with a more westerly flow becoming established throughout the day, which will also allow for scattered convection to develop as the west coast sea breeze spreads inland with the eventual collision occurring towards the eastern side of the Florida peninsula. Thus, greatest chances for convection in the TBW forecast area will generally be interior areas from Polk county southward into southern interior areas where SPC has highlighted this region for a Marginal risk of severe storms late afternoon through this evening. With strong surface heating and dewpoints in the 70s, MLCAPE values will be around 3000 J/kg and combined with 500mb temps as cool as -10C, a hail and damaging wind threat will exist. Otherwise, a warm and humid day ahead with heat index values approaching advisory levels, though values are expected to remain just short of criteria ranging from 104-107 over much of the southern half of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 We will have some increase in moisture which should increase shower activity for Thursday. With a primary westerly flow today our best chance of storms will be inland in the late afternoon and evening hours. We are also seeing cooler temperatures around 500mb ranging from -7 to -10C. This will bring the possibility of some severe hail and winds during the time of the inland storms. Any chance for storms near the coast will be in the late morning to early afternoon but as of right now not expecting any severe weather with the earlier storms. Once again we will be seeing near record heat across much of the area so if working or playing outside please stay hydrated and take breaks. For our Friday we are seeing an upper level trough push across the state. This will increase our mid level moisture and give us higher rain chances across the state. Inland areas, however, will still have the best chance with PoPs around 60 to 70 percent compare to coastal areas which will see chances between 40 to 50 percent. As we go through the weekend the trough that will push through on Friday will dry us out in the mid levels allowing for mostly dry and hot conditions. As we start our next work week tropical moisture from the Caribbean will start to lift over the state. Storms chances will start to increase on Monday but the highest chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with PW increasing to around 2 inches giving us widespread showers and storms each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 739 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions in place this morning with southerly winds shifting to the WSW by the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. The sea breeze will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop mostly for interior areas, though a brief window of convection may occur in the vicinity of coastal terminals by mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, storms will taper off by this evening with conditions VFR area-wide through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Winds will generally stay out of a westerly direction through our Monday and stay at or below 15 knots. An upper level trough Thursday night and Friday will give us our best storm chances across the Gulf before drying out again for the weekend. Tropical moisture will increase for early next week bringing higher shower chances back into the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Moisture will stay high through the end of our work week as an upper level trough approaches our area and pushes through on Friday. We will see scattered storm chances both Thursday and Friday. Moisture will drop behind the trough with the driest day being Sunday afternoon where RHs away from the coast will hover around 40 percent. Moisture will increase significantly for next week as tropical moisture from the Caribbean lifts north across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 78 92 80 / 40 30 60 20 FMY 96 76 94 78 / 50 70 60 40 GIF 98 75 96 76 / 60 40 60 10 SRQ 92 77 92 79 / 40 30 50 20 BKV 96 72 94 72 / 40 20 70 10 SPG 92 80 91 82 / 30 30 60 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson