Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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141 FXUS64 KTSA 210651 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 151 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For the immediate short term, a cluster of showers and storms is moving west-to-east just north of the area, with an outflow boundary moving into northeast OK. These storms are expected to generally remain north of the area, but a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm are certainly possible for the next couple of hours. For the rest of the day, CAM guidance shows several weak transient features moving along the northern periphery of the forecast area. These features will have at least some potential to increase cloud cover and rain chances for a few hours. Accordingly, increased Pops to 10-20% in the northern areas for much of today. Severe weather is not expected, but any storms that do form may result in locally strong gusty winds. Hot temperatures will also continue today with high temperatures again climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Dew points will remain elevated, but likely slightly lower than yesterday, so heat indices are expected to be slightly lower than what was seen yesterday. Still, this will mean afternoon heat indices of 100-105 F for most areas. Heat Advisory criteria may be locally met in a few locations, but for now have elected not to issue any heat products due to low confidence in which areas may do so. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 During the day Sunday the upper level high that has dominated the weather of late will weaken and shift south as a positively tilted trough moves into the region, with the upper level low center moving into Kansas. Showers and storms will increase across the area as upper level diffluence spreads over the warm and humid atmosphere (850-500 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile for this time of year). Then, the surface cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. Storm activity will focus near and behind this boundary, resulting in wet conditions for many Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Although this will not be a classic severe setup, there will be sufficient instability, shear, and forcing for a marginal threat of a few borderline severe storms. In terms of rainfall, guidance leans towards a more modest event, with most areas seeing around a half inch or rain or less. High temperature forecasts Sunday are uncertain and will be dictated by the exact frontal timing. Model guidance is in good agreement that Monday will be quite cool, with most areas in the low to mid 70s. Rain chances will gradually diminish from west to east during the day. The forecast begins to become more uncertain midweek as the initial trough interacts with a second reinforcing shortwave digging into its rear. Cluster analysis shows about a 40% chance that both upper level lows will consolidate into one trough that stays over or just west of the area. In this outcome we would stay much cooler and possibly showery, with the chance of more significant rains returning towards the weekend. Another 40% of guidance sends the trough east of the area, which would result in ridging returning, and warmer and drier conditions. The last 20% of guidance shows something in between these outcomes. So there is still no preferred solution for the middle to end of next week, but any of these outcomes will still allow for much more fall-like weather than we have been seeing lately. Bumped NBM temperatures up a bit to try to get closer to the median of these two different model camps for Wednesday to Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with ongoing thunderstorms expected to stay north of both the Kansas and Missouri borders. Southerly winds will increase mid morning, with gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range expected at TUL/RVS into the afternoon. A very low chance of shower and thunderstorm development affecting mainly BVO toward the end of the TAF period does exist, but chance is low enough to not include in the current TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 75 88 60 / 20 20 50 70 FSM 98 75 93 69 / 10 10 10 30 MLC 98 74 92 61 / 0 10 30 60 BVO 98 70 85 55 / 20 30 70 70 FYV 94 71 88 63 / 20 20 30 50 BYV 92 70 89 65 / 30 20 40 50 MKO 96 74 91 60 / 10 10 30 60 MIO 96 71 87 58 / 20 20 50 70 F10 98 74 91 59 / 10 10 30 60 HHW 97 73 93 67 / 0 10 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...12