813
FXUS64 KTSA 250247
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
947 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across northeast
Oklahoma just south Hwy 412. Storms have become severe at times
over the last couple of hours, with large hail and damaging wind
threats. The airmass south of current activity is characterized by
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, mid level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, and
effective bulk shear in excess of 40-50 kts. While this
environment will become less favorable with time, suspect ongoing
storms should be able to maintain strength for awhile as they move
southward into SE OK late this evening. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will continue to be the main hazards associated with
these storms, as well as locally heavy rainfall and dangerous
lightning. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until
11 PM.

Rain should become increasingly confined to southeast Oklahoma early
tonight before moving out of the FA completely late overnight/ early
tomorrow morning. In its wake, skies are expected to clear with
increasing potential for fog development, especially across NE OK &
NW AR where it may become locally dense. Added mention of patchy fog
for much of NE OK and portions of NW AR late tonight into tomorrow
morning. While fog may also develop across parts of SE OK, lingering
cloudiness & precip may tend to limit fog potential here. Otherwise,
expect quiet conditions tonight behind the ongoing storms with light
winds and lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the
vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently
over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential
that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across
portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and
west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main
concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move
out of the area late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff
upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and
storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated
with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the
area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across
western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level
low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend
with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to
be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread south
and east this evening across E OK and NW AR with additional
development possible over the next several hours. This may lead
to at least brief ceiling & vsby reductions, with highest
potential for flight impacts expected for MLC. Most precip should
move south of TAF sites by 07z with clearing conditions behind
this activity. This may allow for development of fog late tonight/
tomorrow morning (low to medium chance). At this time, MLC and
FSM appear to be most favored for vsby reductions and have
included TEMPO groups here. Other sites in E OK & NW AR may also
experience at least brief vsby reductions, but confidence was not
high enough to include mention with this forecast issuance. Aside
from any lingering fog tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  81  54  80 /  70   0   0   0
FSM   61  82  59  82 /  70   0   0  10
MLC   60  81  56  81 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   54  79  51  78 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   54  78  51  77 /  30   0   0  20
MKO   57  79  55  79 /  70   0   0  10
MIO   54  79  50  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   58  80  53  79 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   63  81  56  82 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...43