Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
144 FXUS65 KVEF 230205 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 705 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to run around 5 to 8 degrees hotter than normal through at least the middle of next week. Moisture will continue to gradually push into Mohave County this afternoon before spreading into San Bernardino and Clark Counties overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon for portions of our forecast area south and east of the I-15 corridor. This moisture will begin its slow retreat back east on Monday with afternoon showers and thunderstorms remaining possible for portions of Mohave County through the middle of the week. && .UPDATE...Convection today was limited to Mohave County and generally short-lived. The only exception to this was a storm that continued to redevelop over the Peacock Mountains east of Kingman, producing nearly 1" of rain at a guage in the area. The only remaining convection in our CWA is a few showers in far eastern/southeastern Mohave County, along the leading edge of an outflow boundary propagating out of Yavapai County. Any additional development along the boundary should remain pretty weak and transient as we continue to lose surface heating. Additional moisture advection tonight will set the stage for better shower/storm coverage tomorrow, primarily along and southeast of I- 15, but may extend up into eastern Lincoln County as well. Main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and lightning, but like today, cannot rule out an isolated flash flood threat if cells train over the same area. Monsoonal moisture remains in place through mid-week, keeping precip chances around for the aforementioned areas until a trough brings drier and slightly cooler air in. Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period. .SHORT TERM...through Monday. Mid-level moisture continues its slow crawl north as is evident by the dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s in southeastern Mohave County. When you take this moisture and combine it with intense daytime heating and hotter than normal temperatures, you get an increased chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in Mohave County this afternoon. Even with this moisture increase the lower levels of the atmosphere remain relatively dry, which will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. While this drier air near the surface may make it difficult for rain to reach the ground, it will provide a favorable environment for gusty outflow winds with any convection that does develop. This moisture will continue to push into the southern and eastern portions of our forecast area during the overnight hours, which will bring increased chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of the I-15 corridor tomorrow afternoon. The past few runs of the HREF and the latest run of the HRRR have shown an uptick in the potential for isolated convective activity in eastern Lincoln County tomorrow afternoon. While this is a slight change from previous iterations of the forecast, it is not entirely surprising as we tend to see convective activity in this region during the North American Monsoon if the moisture makes it that far north. The primary threats with any storms that develop tomorrow will be periods of moderate rain, lightning, and gusty outflow winds. Since this is the first time some portions of our forecast area will have seen precipitation in quite a while, roadways may become slick as oil and dirt are lifted from the surface. By Monday the moisture will have begun it`s slow retreat back to the east with lingering precipitation chances for southern San Bernardino County and eastern Mohave County during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. An extended period of hot weather is the main story though much of the week as an expansive area of high pressure sets up and holds across the Desert Southwest as is typical for this time of year. There are indications the high flattens a little Thu-Fri in response to a trough swinging across the Intermountain Region. The latest NBM indicates daily high temperatures across the Mojave Desert zones will generally be in the 108-112 degree range which is several degrees above normal...but not uncommon for late June. The official forecast for Las Vegas holds at 108-109 for most days except peaks at 110 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 80s. While this is hot, the latest HeatRisk grids have backed off slightly on indicating areas of major HeatRisk (level 3) for Tue-Wed and mainly keep moderate across most of the region. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will transition this afternoon from light easterly to southeasterly to southerly with gusts of 15 to 20 knots, becoming light south southwesterly around sunset. Sunday is likely to be more difficult, as scattered thunderstorms primarily south and east of the terminal could produce outflow boundaries which disrupt the winds. In the absence of outflows, a similar transition as today from easterly to southerly would be the most probable outcome. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Southerly winds gusting 15 to 25 knots are expected over much of the region this afternoon, weakening overnight. Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are expected primarily along and southeast of Interstate 15, likely producing outflows which will disrupt the winds and possibly causing poor visibility in blowing dust. These storms will also produce isolated ceilings below 8000 feet with associated terrain obscuration. Farther northwest, expect similar winds as today, southerly gusting 15 to 25 knots. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods SHORT TERM...Stessman LONG TERM...Adair AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter